آثار اقتصادی تحقیقات به‌نژادی خرما در شرایط ریسک بر توسعه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 محقق مؤسسة تحقیقات علوم باغبانی، پژوهشکدة خرما و میوه‌های گرمسیری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اهواز، ایران

2 استادیار مؤسسة تحقیقات علوم باغبانی، پژوهشکدة خرما و میوه‌های گرمسیری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

سرمایه‌گذاری پایدار در تحقیق و توسعه، در شرایط وجود چالش مالی برای انجام تحقیقات، مستلزم ارائه شواهد مستند از منافع آنهاست. بر این اساس، تحقیق حاضر با هدف برآورد میزان تأثیر منافع اقتصادی بالقوة تحقیقات به‌نژادی خرما به‌عنوان یکی از منابع مهم افزایش بهره‌وری در شرایط ریسک و با استفاده از روش مازاد اقتصادی پیش از اجرا، بر مبنای این اصل انجام شد که معرفی ارقام پربازده و سازگار می‏تواند سبب جابه ‏جایی منحنی عرضه شود. با توجه به ارتباط مستقیم جابه ­جایی نسبی منحنی عرضه با افزایش پارامتر ریسکی تغییرات عملکرد، برای برآورد منافع بالقوه تحقیقات در شش استان خرماخیز، از روش شبیه ­سازی مونت‌کارلو و روش نمونه‌برداری ابرمکعب لاتین استفاده شد. همچنین، با توجه به ماهیت ریسکی متغیرها، بازه تغییرات همه شاخص ­های مورد ارزیابی تعیین شد. یافته ‏های تحقیق، با توجه به مثبت شدن نتایج ارزش خالص منافع اقتصادی و انتقال منحنی عرضه به سمت راست و تأثیر مثبت بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید، مؤید تأثیر پیشرفت فنی ناشی از به‌کارگیری فناوری حاصل از تحقیقات به­نژادی بود؛ همچنین، نرخ بازدهی داخلی بزرگتر از حداقل نرخ بازگشت سرمایه بود و بازه کارآیی در کل استان‌ها در محدودة 6/51 تا 91 ریال به ازای هر ریال هزینه‌کرد به‏دست آمد. نتایج تحلیل مدیریت ریسک بر اساس استاندارد «پیکره دانش مدیریت پروژه» (PMBOK)، ثبات مطلوب نتایج حاصل را تأیید کرد، که تأکیدی بر بازدهی قابل قبول سرمایه ‏گذاری در تحقیقات به ­نژادی خرما بوده و از این‌رو، پیشنهاد شده است که سیاست­ های حمایتی بیشتری در زمینه تحقیقات به ‏­نژادی خرما اتخاذ شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Impacts of Date Palm Breeding Research under Risk on Development

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. Ahmadizadeh 1
  • َA. Mostaan 2
1 Researcher of Horticultural Science Research Institute, Date Palm and Tropical Fruits Research Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Horticultural Science Research Institute, Date Palm and Tropical Fruits Research Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Sustainable investment in research and development programs necessitates documentary evidences about their benefits. Accordingly, this study aimed at estimating the potential economic benefits of date palm breeding researches as an important source of productivity enhancement at risk conditions. It was conducted in a pre-run economic surplus method based on the possibility of shifting the supply curve through introduction of high-yielding and compatible cultivars. With direct relationship between the relative displacement of the supply curve and increase in the risk parameter of yield changes, Monte Carlo simulation and the Latin Hypercube sampling method were used to estimate the potential benefits of breeding research impact in six provinces of Iran. Considering the risky nature of the variables, the range of changes in all evaluated indicators was determined. With respect to the positive results of the net present value of the economic benefits and the transfer of the supply curve to the right and the positive effect on total productivity, the effect of technical progress resulted from breeding research programs was confirmed. The internal rate of return was greater than the minimum rate of return on investment and the efficiency index was estimated in the range of 51.6 to 91 IR rials. The results of risk management analysis based on PMBOK standard confirmed the proper stability of the results which in turn emphasized the acceptable return on investment in date palm breeding research programs. Therefore, it was suggested that more supportive policies should be adopted in the field of date palm breeding research.‎

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Date Palm
  • Economic Impacts
  • Risk
  • Monte Carlo Simulation

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