پیشنهاد مدلی کارآمد برای ارزیابی سیاست‏های حمایتی گندم با رویکرد حداقل ‏سازی خطای ارزیابی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ، ایران

4 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسة پژوهش‏های برنامه‏ ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

اعمال سیاست‏های حمایتی بر محصول گندم برای رسیدن به امنیت غذایی همواره در دستور کار سیاست‏گذاران قرار داشته است. دولت در چارچوب سیاست غذای ارزان، به مصرف گندم یارانه می‌دهد و همچنین، به اجرای سیاست‏های حمایتی تعیین قیمت تضمینی، یارانة نهاده‏ های تولید و بیمه برای تولید محصول گندم می‌پردازد. دولت، هم چنین، خریدار و فروشندة انحصاری گندم در کشور است. با توجه به پیوستگی در اجرا و هزینه ‏های فزایندة برنامه‏ های حمایت از تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان گندم، هدف پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی سیاست‏های دولت در بازار گندم در بازه زمانی 1396-1380 بود. بدین منظور، نخست، اثبات شد که به‏ دست آوردن مقادیر کشش عرضه و تقاضا در یک بازار آشفته به ‏هیچ ‏وجه قابل استناد نیست و در بیان وضعیت موجود در بازار، خطای بسیار زیادی دارد؛ و در عمل، یک مدل پیشنهادی معتبر نیست. برای حل این مشکل، مدلی مبتنی بر بازار پیچیدة ایران پیشنهاد و کارآیی آن در ارزیابی واقعی سیاست‏های حمایتی نشان داده شد. جمع‌بندی نهایی حاکی از آن بود که برای کنترل بازار، سرانة هزینه‏ کرد دولت به ازای گندم نسبت به سایر اقلام یارانه ‏ای چندان قابل توجه نیست و می‌توان با یک مدیریت مناسب و هدفمند، این میزان را تعدیل کرد و با تثبیت نقش نظارتی دولت در بازار گندم، این بازار را به‏ سوی یک بازار استاندارد و با حداقل هزینه برای دولت پیش برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Effective Model for Evaluating Wheat Supportive Government Policies: Error Minimization Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • E. Ajodani 1
  • Gh. Yavari 2
  • A. Mahmoodi 3
  • M. Khaldi 4
  • A. Nikoukar 2
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Supportive policies on wheat crops to achieve food security have always been considered by the concerned policy-makers, but only in the short term. The Iranian governments subsidize wheat consumption within a framework of the Affordable Food Policy as well as the supportive pricing policies, subsidizing production inputs, and insurance for wheat production. Presently, the government is also the sole buyer and seller of wheat in the country. This study aimed at evaluating the government policies in the wheat market during 2000-2016, considering the continuity and increasing costs of support programs for wheat producers and consumers. For this purpose, the modeling results showed that the supply and demand elasticity values in Iran market were invalid and had to be evaluated using a model error. The economists might only use supply and demand elasticity values with low errors to model the welfare and an acceptable market situation; otherwise, based on model error, welfare calculations, or production and consumption losses would be invalid. For solving this problem, a new model based on the complicated Iran market was investigated, analyzed and verified.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wheat
  • Consumers
  • Producers
  • Supportive Government Policies
  • Modeling

مراجع

  1. Abolhassani, L., Shahnoushi, N., Dourandish, A., Taherpour, H. and Mansouri, H. (2018). An investigation on outcomes and consequences of subsidies-reform law in wheat, flour and bread sectors. Agricultural Economics and Development, 26(102): 1450164. (Persian)
  2. Alipour, A., Mousavi, S.H., Khalilian, S. and Mortazavi, A. (2018). Wheat self-sufficiency and population growth in Iran's 2025 perspective (investigating the role of the guaranteed purchase policy). Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 49(4): 635-649. (Persian)
  3. Amin-Rashti, N. (2001). Consumer tax survey in household pattern. Journal of Economic Research, 1(1): 129-148. (Persian)
  4. Anderson, K. (2004). Subsidies and trade barriers. Copenhagen Consensus Challenge Paper, Centre for International Economic Studies, School of Economics, University of Adelaide
  5. Arovuori, K. (2015). Political effectiveness of agricultural policies: an empirical analysis. PTT julkaisuja 23, Academic Dissertation, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry of the University of Helsinki.
  6. PRC (2007). Global views on life satisfaction, national conditions and the global economy. Highlights from the 2007 Pew Global Attitudes 47-Nation Survey. Pew Research Center (PRC), Global Attitudes and Trends.
  7. Azarm, H. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2019). The evaluating necessity of government support for wheat producers in Fars province: the application of the concepts of economies of scale. Agricultural Economics Research, 11(42): 67-84. (Persian)
  8. Bagheri, M. and Najafi, B. (2011). Welfare effects of import tariff reduction on rice market in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 3(9): 181-197. (Persian)
  9. CBI (2018). Statistical Report. Tehran: Ceniral Bank of Iran (CBI). Available at www.cbi.ir. (Persian)

10. Chavas, J. P., Cox, T.L. and Jesse, E. (1998). Spatial allocation and the shadow pricing of product characteristics. Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, 18(968-2016-75512): 1-19.

11. Dadgar, Y., Nazari, R. and Siami-Eraghi, E. (2013). Optimum government and tax in public sector economics and in Iran. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2(5): 1-27. (Persian)

12. Daudelin, J. and Ratton, J.L. (2018). Illegal markets, violence, and inequality: evidence from a Brazilian metropolis. Springer.

13. Devadoss, S., Helmar, M. and Meyers, W.H. (1990). The world wheat trade model: specification, estimation and validation. CARD Technical Reports, 7. Available at http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/card_technicalreports/7.

14. Dourandish, A. (2008). Determining the optimal combination of supportive policy tools in Iran's agricultural sector (selected products: wheat, milk and chicken). PhD Thesis, University of Tehran, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources. (Persian)

15. FAO (2013). FAOSTAT database. Italy, Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

16. Faridzadeh, A., Parvin, S. and Banui, A.A. (2011). Price effects of value added tax based on input-output approach (the case of Iran). Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 16(47): 105-127. (Persian)

17. Faryadras, V., Hosseini, S.S., Salami, H. and Yazdani, S. (2018). Analysis of regional effects of wheat market liberalization in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 26(103): 145-170. (Persian)

18. Gardner, B. (1983). Efficient redistribution through commodity markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 65(2): 225-234.

19. Hejazi, M. and Marchant, M.A. (2017). China’s evolving agricultural support policies. Choices, 32(2): 1-7.

20. Hoang, H.K. and Meyers, W.H. (2015). Price stabilization and impacts of trade liberalization in the Southeast Asian rice market. Food Policy, 57: 26-39.

21. Hosseini, S.S., Dourandish, A. and Salami, H. (2010). Evaluation of Iranian government protection policy in wheat market. Agricultural Economics, 3(4): 95-120. (Persian)

22. IRICA (2016). Statistical Year Book, 2016. Tehran: The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA). (Persian)

23. Jalal Kamali, M.R., Asadi, H. and Najafi Mirak, T. (2009). Irrigated and dryland wheat research strategic program in Iran. Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization. 345 pp. (Persian)

24. Jones, D. and Steenblik, R. (2010). Subsidy estimation: a survey of current practice. Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

25. Joolaei, R. and Kazemnejad, M. (2011). The Investigation of Comparative Advantage and Supporting Policies of Raisin, Qazvin, Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 25(1): 29-37. (Persian).

26. Josling, T. (1974). Agricultural policies in developed countries: a review. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 25(3): 229-264.

27. Khalilian, S., Shemshadi, K., Seyed-Abolghasem, M. and Ahmadian, M. (2014). Investigating welfare effect of climate change on the wheat products in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 3(28): 292-300. (Persian)

28. Moghaddam, M.E., Kamali, M.J., Aghaee, M., Afshari, F. and Roustaei, M. (2009). Status of wheat and wheat rusts in Iran. Proceedings of Technical Workshop, Borlaug Global Rust Initiative, Cd. Obregón, Sonora, Mexico, 17-20 March, 2009.

29. Mousavi, S.H. (2016). Energy price reform and food markets: the case of bread supply chain in Iran. Agricultural Economics, 47(2): 169-179. (Persian)

30. Mousavi, S.H. and Bagheri, M. (2018). Welfare impacts of the subsidy reform policy on wheat, flour and bread market in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 24(94): 245-271. (Persian)

31. Mousavi, S.H. and Esmaeili, A. (2011). The impacts of import tariff policy on domestic rice market in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 3(10): 1-20. (Persian)

32. Najafi, B. and Farajzadeh, Z. (2010). Welfare impacts of chemical fertilizer subsidy elimination on wheat (bread) consumers. Agricultural Economics Research, 2(5): 1-3. (Persian).

33. Nakhaei, N., Chizari, A. and Rezaei, A. (2009). Investigating the government's support policies with policy analysis matrix method: case study of potato in Hamedan province. Agricultural Economics, 3(1): 185-205. (Persian).

34. Nin-Pratt, A., Johnson, M., Magalhaes, E., You, L., Diao, X. and Chamberlin, J. (2011). Yield gaps and potential agricultural growth in West and Central Africa (Vol. 170). International Food Policy Research Institute..

35. Pandey, S. (2005). Economics of subsidy. Available at SSRN904564.

36. Riyahi, F., Najafi Alamdarloo, H. and Vakilpoor, M.H. (2018). Welfare effects of sustainable self-sufficiency on Iran’s wheat market. Agricultural Economics and Development, 26(101): 125-143. (Persian)

37. Sadatbarikani, S.H., Azari, A. and Irannejad, B. (2013). Calculating aggregate measurement of support for wheat and its causality relationship with agricultural production growth in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 21(83): 105-127. (Persian)

38. Salhofer, K., Schmid, E., Schneider, F. and Streicher, G. (2001). Was the Austrian agricultural policy least cost efficient? Ludwig Boltzmann-Inst. zur Analyse Wirtschaftspolitischer Aktivitäten.

39. Samuelson, P.A. (1952). Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming. The American Economic Review, 42(3): 283-303.

40. Sarem, M. and Marzban, H. (2015). Analyzing welfare costs of seignorage tax and consumption tax. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 23(74): 171-192. (Persian)

41. Sckokai, P. and Moro, D. (2006). Modeling the reforms of the common agricultural policy for arable crops under uncertainty. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 88(1): 43-56.

42. Shabanzadeh, M., Peykani, G., Hossseini, S.S. and Yazdani, S. (2019). Change from the purchasing price policy to the guaranteed price policy and its effects on cropping pattern in Qazvin Plain. Agricultural Economics Research, 11(41): 101-103. (Persian).

43. Stifel, D.C. and Randrianarisoa, J. C. (2006). Agricultural policy in Madagascar: a seasonal multi-market model. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(9): 1023-1027.

44. Taali Moghaddam, A., Shahnoushi Froshani, N., Mousavi, S. H. A., and Dourandish, A. (2018). The Impacts of Wheat's Guaranteed Price on its Production in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 23(90), 113-142 (Persian).

45. Takayama, T. and Judge, G.G. (1971). Spatial and temporal price allocation models. Available at:

https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v3y1973i3p304-304.html.

46. Takayama, T. and Judge,G. G. (1964). Spatial equilibrium and quadratic programming. Journal of Farm Economics, 46(1): 67-93.

47. Westcott, P.C. and Hoffman, L.A. (1999). Price determination for corn and wheat: the role of market factors and government programs. Market and Trade Economics division. Economic Research Service. Technical Bulletin, 1878.

48. Zhang, S.Y., Zhang, X.H., Qiu, X.I., Liang, T., Yan, Z., Cao, W.X. and Liu, L.I. (2017). Quantifying the spatial variation in the potential productivity and yield gap of winter wheat in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 16(4): 845-857.

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار