پیشنهاد مدلی کارآمد برای ارزیابی سیاست‏های حمایتی گندم با رویکرد حداقل ‏سازی خطای ارزیابی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران ، ایران

4 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسة پژوهش‏های برنامه‏ ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

اعمال سیاست‏های حمایتی بر محصول گندم برای رسیدن به امنیت غذایی همواره در دستور کار سیاست‏گذاران قرار داشته است. دولت در چارچوب سیاست غذای ارزان، به مصرف گندم یارانه می‌دهد و همچنین، به اجرای سیاست‏های حمایتی تعیین قیمت تضمینی، یارانة نهاده‏ های تولید و بیمه برای تولید محصول گندم می‌پردازد. دولت، هم چنین، خریدار و فروشندة انحصاری گندم در کشور است. با توجه به پیوستگی در اجرا و هزینه ‏های فزایندة برنامه‏ های حمایت از تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان گندم، هدف پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی سیاست‏های دولت در بازار گندم در بازه زمانی 1396-1380 بود. بدین منظور، نخست، اثبات شد که به‏ دست آوردن مقادیر کشش عرضه و تقاضا در یک بازار آشفته به ‏هیچ ‏وجه قابل استناد نیست و در بیان وضعیت موجود در بازار، خطای بسیار زیادی دارد؛ و در عمل، یک مدل پیشنهادی معتبر نیست. برای حل این مشکل، مدلی مبتنی بر بازار پیچیدة ایران پیشنهاد و کارآیی آن در ارزیابی واقعی سیاست‏های حمایتی نشان داده شد. جمع‌بندی نهایی حاکی از آن بود که برای کنترل بازار، سرانة هزینه‏ کرد دولت به ازای گندم نسبت به سایر اقلام یارانه ‏ای چندان قابل توجه نیست و می‌توان با یک مدیریت مناسب و هدفمند، این میزان را تعدیل کرد و با تثبیت نقش نظارتی دولت در بازار گندم، این بازار را به‏ سوی یک بازار استاندارد و با حداقل هزینه برای دولت پیش برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

An Effective Model for Evaluating Wheat Supportive Government Policies: Error Minimization Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • E. Ajodani 1
  • Gh. Yavari 2
  • A. Mahmoodi 3
  • M. Khaldi 4
  • A. Nikoukar 2
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Supportive policies on wheat crops to achieve food security have always been considered by the concerned policy-makers, but only in the short term. The Iranian governments subsidize wheat consumption within a framework of the Affordable Food Policy as well as the supportive pricing policies, subsidizing production inputs, and insurance for wheat production. Presently, the government is also the sole buyer and seller of wheat in the country. This study aimed at evaluating the government policies in the wheat market during 2000-2016, considering the continuity and increasing costs of support programs for wheat producers and consumers. For this purpose, the modeling results showed that the supply and demand elasticity values in Iran market were invalid and had to be evaluated using a model error. The economists might only use supply and demand elasticity values with low errors to model the welfare and an acceptable market situation; otherwise, based on model error, welfare calculations, or production and consumption losses would be invalid. For solving this problem, a new model based on the complicated Iran market was investigated, analyzed and verified.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wheat
  • Consumers
  • Producers
  • Supportive Government Policies
  • modeling
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