عوامل اقتصادی- اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی مؤثر بر وقوع آتش‌سوزی در جنگل‌‌های ایران و راهبردهای مقابله با آن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

سرانه جنگل ایران حدود یک­ چهارم مقدار جهانی و اما روند تخریب و وقوع آتش ‏سوزی در جنگل­ های کشورمان بسیار سریع بوده است؛ این شرایط درخور توجه ویژه و مطالعه است. از این‏رو، مطالعه حاضر با هدف شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر آتش ­سوزی جنگل‎ های ایران و نیز ارزیابی دیدگاه کارشناسان در زمینه راهبرد‎های مدیریت مقابله با آتش ­سوزی و تعیین راهبرد­های مؤثر برای مقابله با آن صورت گرفت. برای بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آتش ‏سوزی جنگل­ ها، از تحلیل رگرسیون و داده­ های استان‏ های منتخب طی دوره 1394-1380 استفاده شد. تحلیل مدیریت مقابله با آتش­سوزی نیز بر اساس قضاوت کارشناسان منتخب در خصوص راهبرد­های پیشنهادی و با بهره ‏گیری از روش ‏های فرآیند تحلیل سلسله ‏مراتبی فازی و تاپسیس انجام شد. یافته­ های مطالعه نشان داد که به­ طور نسبی، سهم متغیرهای اقتصادی- اجتماعی در وقوع آتش ­سوزی بیشتر از متغیرهای زیست ­محیطی بوده و از میان متغیرهای زیست­محیطی، اثر دما قابل ملاحظه است. همچنین، در خصوص متغیرهای اقتصادی-اجتماعی، مشخص شد که تراکم استفاده از جنگل­ ها از طریق افزایش جمعیت و افزایش دسترسی (جاده) موجب افزایش زمینه وقوع آتش­ سوزی می­شود؛ اما در عین حال، بهبود شرایط جامعه از نظر سطح توسعه‏ یافتگی زمینه کاهش وقوع آتش ­سوزی را فراهم می­کند؛ در مورد مدیریت مقابله با آتش ‏سوزی نیز تأکید و تمرکز راهبرد­های اولویت‏ دار، بیش از تجهیزات مورد استفاده، بر مدیریت منابع نیروی ­انسانی است؛ و قبل از آتش­ سوزی، راهبرد­های «برگزاری نشست و تشکیل جلسه ستاد اطفای حریق»، «اعمال جریمه» و «گماشتن نگهبان و دیدبان محلی» از بالاترین اولویت برخوردار بوده و «حفظ خونسردی مأموران» و «حضور به‏ موقع مأموران در محل» به‏ عنوان راهبرد­های حین آتش­ سوزی توصیه شده‏ اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic and environmental driving factors of fires in Iranian forests and the controlling strategies

نویسندگان [English]

  • Z. Dalir 1
  • Z. Farajzadeh 2
  • M. Zibaei 3
1 MSc. Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Iranian per capita forest area is as low as one-fourth of the global one. However, the Iranian forests have experienced a rapid degradation and frequently-occurred fire events. Therefore, this study aims to consider driving factors of forest fires in the Iranian forests as well as to investigate the applicable strategies expressed by the selected experts to control and tackle fire. Regression analysis based on provincial data over 2001-2015 was applied to examine driving factors of forest fires. Fire control management analysis is implemented based on experts’ judgment on the offered strategies applying a combined framework of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and TOPSIS model. The results indicated that socio-economic variables are relatively more determinant in forest fires compared to the environmental variables. As for environmental factors, the variable found to be significant is the temperature. It was also found that higher population and road density will increase the possibility of fire events since it gives rise to more usage of the forests. However, higher development level is expected to induce a reduction in fire events as it is associated with higher level of education and income. It was also found that the strategies with higher priority in fire control are more focused on human resources rather than equipment. Pre-fire strategies including “meeting with fire extinguishing body”, “imposing fire fines” and “using forest patrol” are the most prioritized ones while for during-fire events “keeping self-possession” and “fireman on time attendance at the fire place” are the highly recommended strategies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Forest Fires
  • Socio-economic
  • Forestry
  • Strategy
  • Iran

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