شبیه‌سازی تأثیر عوامل اقلیمی بر کارآیی هزینه تولید گندم در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسئول و استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید محصولات بخش کشاورزی، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی چگونگی تأثیر درجه حرارت و بارندگی بر کارآیی هزینه تولید محصول گندم در ایران بود. به‏ منظور شبیه‌سازی، اطلاعات مربوط به قیمت نهاده‌ها، عملکرد در هکتار، هزینه تولید در هکتار، میانگین درجه حرارت و بارندگی در دوره کاشت محصول، برای گندم آبی از سال زراعی 81-1380 تا سال زراعی 93-1392 برای 28 استان جمع‌آوری شد. با بررسی روش‌های مختلف برآورد تابع هزینه مرزی تصادفی با داده‌های تابلویی، روش مرزی تصادفی «داده‌های ترکیبی» انتخاب شد. پس از تخمین مدل، با استفاده از روش دلتا، شبیه‌سازی اثر متغیرهای بارندگی و درجه حرارت بر هزینه مرزی صورت گرفت و میزان اثرگذاری این دو متغیر بر مرز هزینه و بر کارآیی هزینه برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد که استان خوزستان بالاترین کارآیی هزینه و استان یزد کمترین کارآیی هزینه در تولید گندم را دارند و افزایش درجه حرارت و بارندگی در دامنه شرایط اقلیمی کشور تا حدود چهار درصد در افزایش کارآیی هزینه مؤثر است. با توجه به اقلیم‌های مختلف در کشور و روند کاهش بارندگی و افزایش درجه حرارت، اصلاح و استفاده از ارقام مقاوم به خشکی می‌تواند بر ارتقای کارآیی هزینه مؤثر باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulate the impacts of climatic factors on the efficiency of the production cost A study of wheat Cultivation in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • E. Moradi 1
  • M. Akrami Mohajeri 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran (eb_moradi@eco.usb.ac.ir).
2 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Abstract:
The aim of this study is to investigate how to influence temperature and rainfall on cost efficiency of wheat production. For simulate the effect of temperature and rainfall on cost efficiency of production, Information on pricing, yield per hectare, the production cost per hectare, the average temperature and rainfall during planting crops, for wheat and for 28 provinces were collected over a period of 10 years. by investigation, Different methods of stochastic frontier cost function with panel data, Stochastic Frontier "panel data" Method was selected. After estimating model, Delta method used to simulate the effect of rainfall and temperature variables on frontier cost. And the impact of these two variables was estimated on cost frontier and finally, on the cost efficiency. The results showed that, Khuzestan has highest cost efficiency and Yazd has lowest cost efficiency in wheat production. And increased temperature and rainfall in the range of climatic conditions up to about 4% is effective on the cost efficiency.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • cost efficiency
  • simulation
  • stochastic frontier
  • climate
  • wheat
  • Iran

مراجع

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