عنوان مقاله [English]
Considering the fact that the price of energy carriers has a significant impact on the final cost of agricultural products, removing the subsidies of energy carriers will have multiple effects on the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of reforming the subsidies of energy carriers on agricultural products, consumer price index, demand inputs, and carbon dioxide emissions using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag model for the annual data from 1988 to 2015. These data were collected from the Central Bank, the Statistics Center of Iran, the Ministry of Energy, and the Food and Agricultural Organization. The results showed that eliminating electricity subsidies has more negative economic and social effects than eliminating gas oil subsidies. the elimination of electricity subsidies reduces production and capital by an average of 1% and 41/13%, respectively, while the elimination of gas oil subsidies reduces production and investment by an average of 0/7% and 20/4%, respectively. Moreover, the consumer price index and the demand labor in the elimination of electricity subsidies were in average 12/3% and 1/38%, respectively, while in the elimination of gas oil subsidies, they were in average 3/14% and 0/55%, respectively. In the study of short-term models, it was revealed that the effects were similar to those of long-term models but with less impact. It is suggested that the elimination of gas oil and electricity subsidies in the agricultural sector be done gradually and that the elimination of gas oil subsidies be given priority over the elimination of electricity subsidies.
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