اثرات آزادسازی تجاری بخش کشاورزی اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا و ایران: رهیافت تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه چندمنطقه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

2 استادیار بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 استاد بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

4 دانشجو

چکیده

کشاورزی از مهم‌ترین‌ بخش‌های اقتصادی است که به‏ طور مستقیم، با امنیت غذایی و سلامت جامعه در ارتباط است و نقشی مهم در توسعه کشور دارد. بنابراین، ارزیابی اثرات آزادسازی تجاری در بخش کشاورزی از اهمیت ویژه برخوردار است. در همین راستا، در پژوهش حاضر، اثرات کاهش تعرفة وارداتی بخش کشاورزی ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا بر رفاه، تراز تجاری و تولید بر اساس الگوی پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) و نسخه 10 پایگاه داده‌های آن، طی سه سناریو (کاهش بیست درصدی، کاهش شصت درصدی و کاهش صد درصدی نرخ تعرفه‌ها) با بسته نرم‏افزاری GEMPACK تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که با آزادسازی تجاری بخش کشاورزی، تغییرات رفاهی معنی‌‌دار در ایران و روسیه ایجاد می‌شود و ارمنستان رفاه منفی را تجربه می‌کند؛ همچنین، بیشترین رفاه از آن ایران خواهد بود. تفکیک اثرات تکانه‌ها بر رفاه نیز نشان داد که بیشترین تأثیر مثبت بر رفاه ایران مربوط به تکانه‌های سوم (کاهش تعرفه محصولات کشاورزی واردشده از روسیه به ایران) و پنجم (کاهش تعرفه محصولات کشاورزی واردشده از قزاقستان به ایران) بوده و بیشترین تأثیر مثبت بر رفاه روسیه نیز مربوط به تکانه سوم است؛ افزون بر این، کاهش تعرفه‌های بخش کشاورزی دارای اثر منفی بر تراز تجاری و تولید این بخش است و بیشترین اثرات کاهش تعرفه‌های بخش کشاورزی در تراز تجاری بخش صنعت انعکاس دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Agricultural Sector of Eurasian Economic Union and Iran: Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Nejati 1
  • M. Bahmani 2
  • S. A. Jalaee Esfandabadi 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Agriculture, as one of the most important economic sectors which is directly related to food security and public health, plays an important role in the development of countries. Thus, evaluating the effects of trade liberalization in the agricultural sector is of particular importance. Therefore, this study aimed at analyzing the effects of import tariff reduction in the agricultural sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on welfare, trade balance and production based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and version 10 of its database, in three scenarios (20 percent, 60 percent and 100 percent reductions of tariff rates) with GEMPACK software package. The study results showed that with the trade liberalization of the agricultural sector, significant welfare changes would occur in Iran and Russia; Armenia would experience negative welfare; also, the highest welfare would belong to Iran. In addition, decomposing the effects of shocks on welfare showed that the most positive impact on Iran's welfare was related to the third shock (reduction of tariffs on agricultural products imported from Russia to Iran) and fifth shock (reduction of tariffs on agricultural products imported from Kazakhstan to Iran); the most positive impact on Russia's welfare was related to the third shock; also, the reduction of tariffs in the agricultural sector had negative effects on trade balance and production of this sector, and the highest effects of tariffs reduction in the agricultural sector were reflected on the trade balance of industrial sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • trade liberalization
  • Eurasian Economic Union
  • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model
  • tariff in the agriculture sector

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