تحلیل آثار رفاهی اعمال سیاست یارانه سبز بر تولید‌کنندگان در ایران با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه‏ پذیر: در مسیر الحاق به سازمان تجارت جهانی (WTO)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور ، تهران، ایران.

5 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

یکی از سیاست‌های مهم اقتصادی در اغلب کشورها حمایت از تولیدکننده یا مصرف‌کننده از طریق پرداخت یارانه بوده و یارانه سبز نیز ویژه کشاورزان و به‏ منظور رونق کسب‏ و کار و صنعت در بخش کشاورزی طراحی شده است. مطالعه حاضر، با هدف بررسی آثار الحاق ایران به سازمان تجارت جهانی (WTO) از طریق محاسبه اثرات اعمال یارانه سبز بر رفاه کشاورزان با استفاده از برآورد تابع عرضه در قالب یک مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه ‏پذیر (CGE) انجام شد. بدین ترتیب، طراحی سیاست شبیه‌سازی ‏شده یارانه سبز در بخش کشاورزی در قالب سناریوهای بیست، پنجاه و صد درصد و همچنین، کالیبراسیون مدل با به‏ کارگیری ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 و سناریوی پایه (صفر درصد اعمال یارانه سبز) صورت پذیرفت. برای تحلیل اطلاعات تحقیق نیز از نرم‌افزار GAMS استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در جریان الحاق ایران به سازمان تجارت جهانی و با اعمال سیاست شبیه‌سازی ‏شده یارانه سبز، تولید در بخش کشاورزی افزایش و قیمت‌ها کاهش می‏ یابد، اما تولید در بخش‏ های صنعت و خدمات کاهش و قیمت‌ها افزایش خواهد یافت. در کل، نتایج تغییرات مشاهده‏شده بیانگر افزایش رفاه تولید‌کننده در تمامی بخش‌ها بود، با این تفاوت که در بخش کشاورزی، تغییرات بسیار بیشتری مشاهده شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Welfare Effects of Green Subsidy Policy on Producers in Iran Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (on the Way to WTO Accession)

نویسندگان [English]

  • maliheh Bakeshloo 1
  • Gh. Yavari 2
  • A. Mahmoudi 3
  • A. Nikoukar 4
  • F. Alijani 5
1 Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
5 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

One of the most important economic policies in most countries is to support producers or consumers through subsidies; and green subsidies are designed for farmers to achieve the prosperity of business and industry in the agricultural sector. The present study was conducted to investigate the effects of Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) by calculating the effects of green subsidy application on farmers' welfare using supply function estimation within a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Thus, the simulated green subsidy policy in the agricultural sector was designed through 20%, 50% and 100% scenarios and also the model calibration was done using the social accounting matrix of 2011 and the baseline scenario (zero percent of green subsidy applications). In addition, GAMS software was used to analyze the research information. The results showed that during Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization, followed by the implementation of the simulated green subsidy policy, production in the agricultural sector would increase and the prices would decrease while production in industry and services would decrease and the prices would increase. In general, the results of the observed changes indicated an increase in producer welfare in all sectors, with the difference that in the agricultural sector, these changes would be much greater.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Green Subsidy
  • Welfare
  • Agriculture
  • WTO
  • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model

مراجع

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