بررسی اثر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد، ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

ایران از سال 1995 در تلاش است که رژیم تجاری خود ار آزاد کند تا عملکرد رشد و تجارت بالاتری داشته باشد. با وجود دوره طولانی آزادسازی، واردات هنوز هم سریع تر از صادرات رشد می کند و کسری تجارت را افزایش می­دهد. از این‏رو، پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی اثرات آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت محصولات کشاورزی با استفاده از رویکرد الگوی مارکوف- سوئیچینگ و داده­ های سری زمانی سالانه (از1979 تا 2018) انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که آزادسازی، از طریق کاهش نرخ تعرفه واردات، در کوتاه‏مدت، صادرات را به میزان 1/56درصد افزایش می­دهد؛ اما در بلندمدت، میزان واردات حدود 65/7 درصد کاهش می­یابد. همچنین، نتایج تخمین الگوی رشد نشان داد که شاخص آزادسازی در هر دو رژیم اثر مثبت و معنی‏دار بر رشد کشاورزی دارد، بدین معنی که اعمال سیاست آزادسازی تجاری در دوره مورد مطالعه به میزان 1/981 درصد تأثیر مثبت بر رشد بخش کشاورزی داشته است. بنابراین، آزادسازی تجاری در کوتاه‌مدت منجر به رشد در صادرات می‏ شود و در بلندمدت نیز با افزایش تولید، به افزایش حجم صادرات و کاهش واردات و از این‏رو، به رشد اقتصادی می‏انجامد. با توجه به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده و به‌منظور افزایش توان تجارت در بخش کشاورزی، پیشنهاد می­ شود که تنظیم سیاست­ های تعرف ه­ای در خصوص آزادسازی تجاری همگام و مطابق با اهداف برنامه ­های سند چشم‌انداز انجام شده و شرایط لازم برای حفظ قدرت چانه زنی در مذاکرات تجاری آتی نیز مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Trade Liberalization on Agricultural Growth and Trade in Iran: Application of Markov-Switching Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Abbasi 1
  • R. Moghaddasi 2
  • A. Kianirad 3
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics, and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Since 1995, Iran has been striving to liberalize its trade regime in order to increase its growth and trade performance. Despite a long period of liberalization, imports are still growing faster than exports, widening the trade deficit. Therefore, this study aimed mainly at investigating the effects of trade liberalization on the growth and trade of agricultural products using the Markov-switching model approach and annual time series data (from 1986 to 2018). The results showed that liberalization, by reducing the import tariff rate, increased exports by 1.56 percent in the short run, but reduced imports by about 7.65 percent in the long run. In addition, the results of growth pattern estimation showed that the liberalization index in both regimes had a significantly positive effect on agricultural growth, meaning that the implementation of trade liberalization policy in the studied period had a positive effect on agricultural growth by 1.98 percent. Thus, trade liberalization in the short run leads to growth in exports and in the long run, by increasing production, increases the volume of exports and decreases imports, and hence, leads to economic growth. According to the obtained results, in order to increase the trade potential of the agricultural sector, it is suggested that tariff policies on trade liberalization be developed in line with the objectives of the Perspective Document Programs of the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Liberalization
  • Agricultural Trade
  • Economic Growth
  • Markov-Switching
  • Iran

مراجع

  1. Abrishami, H., Mehrara, M. and Mohseni, R. (2005). The effect of trade liberalization on the trade balance and the current account of the balance of payments (an econometric analysis). Journal of Knowledge and Development, 17: 11-36. (Persian)
  2. Ahmadian Yazdi, F., Salimifar, M. and Ahmadi Shadmehri, M. (2015). The impact of trade liberalization and economic growth on non-oil bilateral trade flow between Iran and China over the period 1981-2012. Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 5(20): 11-30. (Persian)
  3. Akbari‎, M. (2016). Calculation of effective nominal and real exchange rates in the Iranian economy. Trend, 23(74): 135-162. (Persian)
  4. Ang, A. and Bekaert, G. (1998). Regime switches in interest rates. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(2): 163-182.
  5. Ara Research Center (2017). Challenges of Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization. Department of Industry and Commerce. First Edition: Strategic Report on Management and Economics - 46.
  6. Azizi, V., Mehregan, N. and Yavari, Gh. (2015). The effects of trade liberalization on the trade balance of the agricultural sector in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 23(92): 141-168. (Persian)
  7. Barghi Oskouei, M., Kazerouni, A., Salmani, B. and Khodaverdizadeh, S. (2017). Asymmetric effects of the trade balance on savings rates and real effective exchange rates: Markov-Switching approach. Journal of Economic Research, 52(4): 821-858. (Persian)
  8. Cologni, A. and Manera, M. (2009). The asymmetric effects of oil shocks on output growth: a Markov-Switching analysis for the G-7 countries. Economic Modelling, 1(26): 1-29.
  9. Emrah, İ., Çevik , E. and Turhan, K. (2019). Trade openness and economic growth in Turkey: a rolling frequency domain analysis. International Journal of Economics, 7(2): 1-16.
  10. Eslamloueyan, K., Shafiee Sarvestani, M. and Jafari, M. (2010). Investigating the effect of trade openness on macro variables in the Iranian economy (1961-2007). Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 14(43): 1-21. (Persian)
  11. Esmaeili, S. and Moghaddasi, R. (2009). Study of trade liberalization process in agriculture and industry. Journal of Agricultural Extension and Economics, 2(2): 16-24. (Persian)
  12. Esmaeili, A. and Rahmati, D. (2008). The effect of trade liberalization on Iran's agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics (Agriculture and Economics), 2(1): 119-128. (Persian)
  13. Fathi, Y. and Yousefi, M. (2018). The Impact of trade openness on manufacturing sector growth in WTO NACs: dynamic panel data approach. Journal of Economic Research, 18(69): 69-105. (Persian)
  14. Fetros, M.H., Akbari Shahrestani, F. and Mirzaei, M. (2013). Effect of economic freedom on life expectancy: a panel data analysis of selected countries, including Iran. Journal of Economic Strategy, 1(3): 169-193. (Persian)
  15. Friedman, M. (1962). Capitalism and freedom. Chicago: The University of Chicago.
  16. Garcia, R. (1988). Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in Markov-Switching models. International Economic Review, 39(3): 763-788.
  17. Golkhandan, A. (2016). Globalization and the size of government in Iran: with the introduction of a new index of globalization, KOF. Journal Economic, 1(11-12): 5-38. (Persian)
  18. Gonzalo, S. and Ataman, A. (2006). Growth before and after trade liberalization. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4062, November, 1: 1-50.
  19. Gorji, E. and Alipourian, M. (2006). Analysis of the effect of trade liberalization on economic growth of OPEC member countries. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 10(40): 187-203. (Persian)
  20. Hansen, B. (1992). The likelihood ratio test under non-standard conditions: testing the Markov-Switching model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7(1): 61-82.
  21. Hozar Moghaddam, N. and Abdoli, Gh. (2013). The effects of trade liberalization on industry productivity. Journal of Economic Strategy, 2(4): 7-38. (Persian)
  22. Hozouri, N. (2017). The effect of trade liberalization on economic growth: selected MENA countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1): 88-95.
  23. Irhan, H.B., Alacahan, N. and Korap, L. (2011). An empirical model for the Turkish trade balance: new evidence from ARDL bounds testing analyses. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, 14: 38-61.
  24. Kennedy, O. (2013). Kenya, s foreign trade balance: an empirical investigation. European Scientific Journal, 9(19): 176-189.
  25. Khan, M. and Zahlar, R. (1985). Trade and financial liberalization in the context of external shocks and inconsistent domestic policies. IMF Staff Papers, 1(32): 22-55.
  26. Krolzig, H.M. (1997). Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions modelling, statistical inference, and application to business cycle analysis. Berlin: Springer.
  27. Li, D., Song, Z. and Fan, L. (2011). A Markov Regime-Switching model on foreign trade: the case of China. International Conference on Management and Service Science, pp. 1-4, DOI: 10.1109/ICMSS.2011.5999256.
  28. Mehnatfar, Y., Soleimani, H. and Babaei, S. (2015). The effect of value added of different economic sectors on the economic growth of the provinces in the Fourth Development Plan (with emphasis on the agricultural sector) using panel data. Journal of Macroeconomics, 10(20): 1-16. (Persian)
  29. Mohseni, R. (2006). The impact of trade liberalization on import demand in Iran: a commodity study. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 10(41): 92-126. (Persian)
  30. Monjurul Hoque, M. and Zulkornain, Y. (2010). Impacts of trade liberalization on aggregate import in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds test approach. Journal of Asian, 21: 37-52.
  31. Moridi, S. (1993). Iran's economic and agricultural liberation policy. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 1 (Special Issue of Agricultural Liberation and Development Seminar): 175-205. (Persian)
  32. Najarzadeh, R., Tamannaeifar, S. and Goli, Y. (2012). The impact of trade liberalization on total factor productivity in group of Islamic countries. Journal of Quantitative Economics (Economic Studies), 9(2): 129-152. (Persian)
  33. Nematollahi, F. and Mojedzadeh Tabatabaei, S. (2009). The impact of OPEC oil price fluctuations on Iran's trade balance. Journal of Economic Modeling, 3(4): 151-169. (Persian)
  34. Pedram, M., Shirinbakhsh, S. and Rahmani, M. (2011). Dynamics of J curve in Iran's foreign trade. Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 19(60): 5-18. (Persian)
  35. Pishbahar, E., Asadollahpour, F. and Ferdowsi, R. (2015). Investigating the effects of input price shocks on chicken meat prices: Markov-Switching nonlinear approach. Journal of Animal Science Research, 25(1): 79-94. (Persian)
  36. Rahimi Boroujerdi, A. (2017). Economic liberalization from theory to practice. Tehran: The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Islamic and Human Sciences (SAMT). (Persian)
  37. Rasekhi, S., Montazeri, M. and Pashazanus, P. (2014). Asymmetric nonlinear response of the trade balance to real exchange rate changes: a case study of Iran. Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policy, 3(1): 41-62. (Persian)
  38. Ray, S. (2012). An analysis of determinants of balance of trade in India. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 3(1): 73-83.
  39. Salem, B. (2012). Study of agricultural production and trade trends in Iran and selected countries with regard to trade liberalization in the last decade. Economic Journal (Bimonthly Review of Economic Issues and Policies), 12(4-5): 39-60. (Persian)
  40. Salem, B. and Yousefpour, N. (2012). A study of the effects of trade liberalization in developing countries. Economic Journal (Bimonthly Review of Economic Issues and Policies), 12(1): 93-104. (Persian)
  41. Sharifi Renani, H., Shoaee, H., Mirfattah, M. and Tavakolnia, M. (2013). Investigating the effects of economic liberalization on macroeconomic indicators in Iran: with emphasis on trade liberalization. Journal of Strategic Studies in Public Policy, 4(10): 29-58. (Persian)
  42. Spagnolo, F., Psaradakis , Z. and Sola, M. (2005). Testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a Markov Switching model and instrumental variables. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(3): 423-437.
  43. Tilabi, A. and Asghari, A. (2016). Familiarity with the status, structure and process of accession to the World Trade Organization. The Second National Conference on New Research in the Humanities and Social Studies. Iran. (Persian)
  44. Varghese, N. (2014). The effect of trade liberalization on Indian groundnut exports: a markova analysis. Journal of Business and Economic Policy, 1(1): 1-8.
  45. Yaya, M.E. and Lu, X. (2012). The short-run relationship between real effective exchange rate and balance of trade in China. International Journal of Applied Economics, 9(1): 15-27.
  46. Zahed-Talaban, A. (2006). Changes in Iran's trade policy: moving towards tariff instruments. Journal of World Trade Research, 2-3: 43-85. (Persian)
  47. Zahedi Mazandarani, M.J. (1993). Economic liberalization: freedom or necessity. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 1 (Special Issue of Seminar on Agricultural Liberation and Development): 12-35. (Persian)
  48. Zakaria, M. (2014). Effects of trade liberalization on exports, imports and trade balance in Pakistan: a time series analysis. Prague Economic Papers, 1: 121-139.
  49. Zamanzadeh, H. (2010). Import management: necessity, tools and policy strategy. Journal of Economic News, 8(129): 25-43. (Persian)
  50. Zaroki, Sh., Motameni, M. and Nataj Fereidooni, M.A. (2016). Trade liberalization and applied agricultural performance of intra-sectoral and general indicators of international trade. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 8(29): 129-159. (Persian)

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار