تأثیر تحریم‌ها بر رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسئول و استادیار پژوهشی مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، ایران،

2 کارشناس پژوهشی مؤسسة پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در طول چهار دهه گذشته، اقتصاد ایران از تحریم‌های اقتصادی با شدت و ضعف متفاوت تأثیر پذیرفته است. با وجود عدم تحریم مستقیم بخش کشاورزی، انتظار بر این است که متغیرهای کلان این بخش از جمله رشد اقتصادی از آثار ثانویه و غیرمستقیم تحریم‌ها بی‏ نصیب نبوده باشند. مطالعه حاضر، با هدف بررسی آثار تحریم‌های اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی کشاورزی ایران، از طریق برآورد مدل ARDL خطی و با استفاده از آمار سال‌های 98-1371 انجام شد. نتایج مطالعه، از یک سو، حاکی از تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار موجودی سرمایه خالص کشاورزی، نیروی کار کشاورزی و بهره‌وری موجودی سرمایه خالص کشاورزی و از سوی دیگر، بیانگر عدم تأثیر معنی‌دار تحریم‌های اقتصادی بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت است. از این‏رو، در راستای حفظ رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی در شرایط تحریمی کشور، پیشنهاد می‏شود که افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی، ‌کاهش استهلاک سرمایه‌های کشاورزی، افزایش به‏ کارگیری دانش‌آموختگان کشاورزی و اتخاذ سیاست‌های حمایت از تولید کشاورزی مورد تاکید سیاست‏گذاران قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Sanctions on Economic Growth of Iran's Agricultural Sector

نویسندگان [English]

  • K. Khaledi 1
  • M. Ardestani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
2 Expert Member of Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

 Iran's economy has been hit hard by economic sanctions over the past four decades with varying degrees of intensity. Despite the lack of direct sanctions on the agricultural sector, it is expected that the macro variables of this sector, including its economic growth, will not be immune to the secondary and indirect effects of sanctions. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the effects of economic sanctions on the economic growth of Iran's agriculture by estimating the linear ARDL model using the statistics of 1992-2019. The study results indicated, on the one hand, the positive and significant impact of net agricultural capital inventory, agricultural labor and productivity of net agricultural capital inventory and on the other hand, no significant impact of economic sanctions on Iran's agricultural value added in the short and long run. In order to maintain the economic growth of the agricultural sector in the face of sanctions, it is suggested that increasing investment in the agricultural sector, reducing agricultural depreciation, increasing the employment of agricultural graduates and adopting policies to support agricultural production might be emphasized by the policy-makers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Sanctions
  • Economic Growth
  • Agriculture Sector
  • Iran

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