تعیین الگوی کشت بهینه محصولات زراعی با تأکید بر ریسک درآمدی: مطالعه موردی دهستان روشن‌آباد شهرستان گرگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

3 نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران .

4 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران.

5 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه بلونیا، ایتالیا.

چکیده

با توجه به محیط متغیر فعالیت‌های کشاورزی، کشاورزان با انواع ریسک و عدم قطعیت مواجه می‌شوند که بر تصمیمات تولید، پایداری و سودآوری این فعالیت‌ها تأثیرگذار است. ریسک درآمدی، به‌‏عنوان برآیند دو ریسک قیمت و عملکرد، از مهم‌ترین ریسک‌های پیش روی کشاورزان است. در مطالعه حاضر، الگوی کشت بهینه محصولات زراعی با بهره‏ گیری از روش تحلیل پوششی داده‌های سازگار با تنوع و بر مبنای معیار فاصله جهت‌دار تعیین شد. بدین منظور، از معیارهای «بازدهی سود انتظاری» و «ریسک ارزش در معرض خطر شرطی در سطوح احتمال مختلف» استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در الگوی کشت بهینه، سهم محصول گندم کاهش و سهم محصولات سودآورتری نظیر برنج دانه ‏متوسط مرغوب افزایش می‌یابد؛ همچنین، محصولاتی نظیر سویا و پنبه که نسبت به سایر محصولات سودآوری کمتر و ریسک بیشتری دارند، از الگوی کشت بهینه حذف می‌شوند. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، برای توسعه کشت برنج در منطقه، استفاده از ابزارهایی نظیر بیمه درآمدی، پرداخت‌های جبرانی و صندوق تثبیت درآمد پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining the Optimal Cropping Pattern with Emphasis on Income Risk: A Case study of Roshanabad Subdistrict of Gorgan County in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Aminravan 1
  • S.M. Mojaverian 2
  • S.-A. Hosseini-Yekani 3
  • R. Joolaie 4
  • D. Viaggi 5
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
2 . Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
4 . Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Gorgan, Iran.
5 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Bologna, Italy.
چکیده [English]

The changing environment of agricultural activities face farmers to a variety of risks and uncertainties that influence the decisions of production, sustainability and profitability of these activities. Income risk as a result of both price and crop yield risks is one of the most important risks for farmers. In this study, optimal cropping pattern of crops as a tool for managing income risk was determined using diversification-consistent Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model based on directional-distance measures. For this purpose, the expected profit and the conditional value at risk at different probability levels were used as return and risk measures. The results showed that in the optimal cropping pattern, the share of wheat decreased and the share of more profitable crops such as medium rice grain with high-quality increased; in addition, crops such as soybeans and cotton with less profit and more risk were eliminated from the optimal cropping pattern. Based on the study results, it is suggested to use tools such as income insurance, compensating payments and a revenue stabilization fund for the development of rice cultivation in the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : Income Risk
  • Cropping Pattern
  • DEA Model
  • Gorgan (County)

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