کاربرد برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی پویا در تحلیل توسعه امنیت غذایی ایران از طریق کشت فراسرزمینی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش سیاست و توسعه، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت موضوع کم‌آبی در سطح ملی و بین‌المللی، یکی از راهکارهای نجات ایران از بحران آب را می‏توان کشت فراسرزمینی دانست. در تحقیق حاضر، مدل برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی پویا به ‏عنوان چارچوبی برای برنامه‌ریزی سرمایه‌گذاری مشترک در بخش کشاورزی برای بهبود امنیت غذایی در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1397 تا 1399 در نظر گرفته شد؛ همچنین، این مدل با تخصیص عادلانه سود و ارزیابی منصفانه هزینه‌های سرمایه‌گذاران همکار از طریق یک «بازی» با ویژگی‌های مرتبط توسعه داده ‌شد و برآوردها با بهره ‏گیری از نرم‌افزار اکسل صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که در کشت فراسرزمینی، محصولات گندم، جو و کلزا، به‏ ترتیب، 468، 298 و 67 هزار تن در کشورهای میزبان تولید شده و به ‏ترتیب، حدود چهارده، پنج و چهار درصد از سهم واردات این محصولات در کشور کاهش یافته است؛ مقدار کل آب مصرفی برای تولید محصولات یادشده در کشت فراسرزمینی 1890 میلیون متر مکعب در کشورهای میزبان بوده، که این مقدار در مصرف منابع آبی کشور ذخیره شده است. در همین راستا، برنامه‏ ریزی دولت و به‌ویژه وزارت جهاد کشاورزی برای حمایت از سرمایه‌گذاران فعال در زمینه کشت محصولات راهبردی در زمین‌های کشورهای خارجی، ضمانت خرید این محصولات و حتی سلف‌خری از کشاورزان برون‌مرزی از جمله راهکارهای پیشنهادی پژوهش حاضر برای کمک به ادامه روند کار این‏گونه سرمایه ‏گذاران و کشاورزان است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

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نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Norouzian 1
  • M. Mashemitabar 2
  • A. Akbari 3
1 Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Orientation Policy and Development, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Given the importance of the water scarcity at the national and international levels, one of the ways to resolve Iran’s emerging water crisis is the use of extraterritorial cultivation. In this research, dynamic goal programming model was used as a framework for planning mutual investment in the agricultural sector to improve food security in food production in Iran during the period of 2018-2020. With fair profit distribution and fair cost estimation of partner investors, the model was developed through a "game" with related features and Excel software was used for estimation. The results showed that the production of wheat, barley and canola in extraterrestrial cultivation were 468, 298 and 67 thousand tons in the host countries, respectively; and nearly 14, 5 and 4 percent of the share of imports of wheat, barley and canola products in the country has reduced, respectively. The total amount of water used to produce extraterrestrial crops was 1890 million cubic meters in the host countries, the amount which was equivalent to the conservation of the country's water resources. In this regard, it can be suggested that the government and especially the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ) plan to support investors who cultivate in foreign lands. Guaranteeing the purchase of these products and even self-purchase from overseas farmers might help them continue their development efforts.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic goal programming
  • Mutual investment
  • Extra-territorial cultivation
  • Game theory

مراجع

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