مطالعه اثرات بی‏ ثباتی سیاست‏ های توسعه مالی و نااطمینانی نرخ تورم بر رشد اقتصادی کسب ‏و کارهای بخش کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسنده مسئول و عضو هیئت علمی، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه کارآفرینی، دانشکده کارآفرینی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری کارآفرینی، دانشکده کارآفرینی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

شکنندگی مالی به بحران مالی و به‏ دنبال آن، کاهش رشد اقتصادی می ‏انجامد. بنابراین، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثرات بی‏ ثباتی سیاست‏ های توسعه مالی و نااطمینانی نرخ تورم بر رشد اقتصادی کسب ‏وکارهای بخش کشاورزی با تأکید بر اشتغال و کارآفرینی بود و از این‏ رو، پژوهش حاضر، از حیث هدف، کاربردی و از لحاظ ماهیت و روش، توصیفی بود که به شکل کتابخانه ‏ای و با استفاده از داده ‏های فصلی سال‏های 1391 تا 1397 انجام گرفت. در پژوهش حاضر، از روش های اقتصادسنجی شامل آزمون ریشه واحد دیکی- فولر و روش میانگین متحرک برای برآورد نوسان‏های نرخ ارز و همچنین، از روش ‏های یوهانسون- یوسیلیوس و یا روش خودرگرسیونی برداری با وقفه‏ های توزیعی بر اساس مانا و ریشه واحد بودن متغیرها استفاده شد. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که در کوتاه‏مدت، افزایش نااطمینانی تورم باعث کاهش 19/6 درصدی رشد اقتصادی کسب‏ وکارهای بخش کشاورزی می ‏شود. بنابراین، می‏ توان نتیجه گرفت که بی‏ ثباتی سیاست ‏های توسعه مالی و نااطمینانی نرخ تورم باعث می‏ شوند تا کسب‏ و کارها در تصمیم گیری‏ های خود دچار مشکل شده، قادر به پیش ‏بینی و برنامه‏ ریزی فعالیت‏ های آتی خود نباشند و فرآیند تولید بنگاه‏ های اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی مختل شود. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، شایسته است که دولت، پیش از فراهم کردن زیرساخت‏ ها، از آزادسازی مالی اجتناب کند و افزایش صادرات محصولات کشاورزی و رشد اقتصادی از طریق آزادسازی تجاری را در دستور کار خود قرار دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effects of Instability in Financial Development Policies and Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth of Agricultural Businesses

نویسندگان [English]

  • Y. Mohammadkarimi 1
  • A. Arabiyoun 2
  • M. Yazdanparast 3
1 Corresponding Author and Faculty Member, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 PhD Student in Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Financial fragility causes financial crisis and subsequent decline in economic growth. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the effects of instability in financial development policies and inflation uncertainty on the economic growth of agricultural businesses with emphasis on employment and entrepreneurship. Thus, it was an applied research in terms of its purpose and a descriptive study in terms of its nature. The research was done in the form of a library study using quarterly data from 2013 to 2019. Econometric methods including the Dickey-Fuller unit root test and the moving average method were used to estimate exchange rate fluctuations as well as the Johansson-Juselius method or the vector autoregression method with distributive intervals based on the stationary and unit root of the variables was used. The research findings indicated that in the short term, increasing inflation uncertainty reduced the economic growth of agricultural businesses by 6.19 percent. Therefore, it can be concluded that the instability of financial development policies and the uncertainty of inflation cause businesses to have difficulty in their decisions and fail to predict and plan their future activities as well as disrupt the production process of firms in the economy of the agricultural sector. According to the study results, the government should avoid financial liberalization before providing infrastructure, and increase agricultural exports and economic growth through trade liberalization.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial Development Policies
  • Inflation Rate
  • Economic Growth
  • Business
  • Agriculture

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