آثار اقتصادی تغییر اقلیم بر محصولات منتخب راهبردی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

عضو هیئت علمی مؤسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی

چکیده

گرچه همه بخش­ های مختلف اقتصادی از تغییرات اقلیم تأثیر می‏ پذیرند، اما وابستگی بخش کشاورزی به اقلیم بیش از دیگر بخش‏ هاست. اثر منفی گرمایش جهانی بر کشاورزی تهدیدی برای امنیت غذایی محسوب می‌شود. از این ‏رو، کمی‌سازی آثار این تغییرات بر تولید محصولات کشاورزی بسیار ضروری می‌نماید. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای اقلیمی بر میزان تولید محصولات راهبردی منتخب در ایران بود و بدین منظور، از رهیافت سری‌های زمانی و مدل اقتصادسنجی خودرگرسیونی با وقفه توزیعی (ARDL) استفاده شد. برآورد مدل با استفاده از داده ­های دوره زمانی 93-1340 نشان داد که محصولات برنج، جو، گندم و ذرت، به‏ ترتیب، بیشترین سرعت تعدیل را در واکنش به هر گونه تکانه (شوک) و انحراف از حالت تعادلی بلندمدت خود دارند؛ همچنین، از لحاظ تأثیرگذاری غلظت دی‏ اکسید کربن (CO2)، ذرت بیشترین افزایش تولید و برنج کمترین تأثیرپذیری مثبت را به ازای یک درصد افزایش دی‏اکسید کربن  بیشتر خواهند داشت. از بررسی مجموع نتایج می­توان دریافت که تاکنون اثر منفی معنی­دار از تغییر اقلیم بر تولید غلات کشور چه در کوتاه‏مدت و چه در بلندمدت مشاهده نشده و هرچند، در طول نیم قرن گذشته، تاثیرات منفی تغییر اقلیم با اتکای بیشتر بر بهره ‏برداری از منابع پایه آب و خاک جبران شده است، تداوم این وضعیت برای آینده امکان‏پذیر نیست. بنابراین، «بهره‏ گیری از فناوری­ های پیشرفته» و «ترویج کشاورزی هوشمند نسبت به اقلیم» را می‏توان راهکارهایی مناسب برای جلوگیری از وقوع پیامدهای فاجعه ‏بار تغییر اقلیم در بخش کشاورزی دانست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Selected Strategic Crops in Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • M. Salehnia
Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Agriculture may be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on natural weather patterns and climate cycles for its productivity. Global warming may also threaten food security in the case of its negative effect on agriculture. Therefore, there is the need to empirically examine the effect of climate change on agriculture. This study aimed at investigating whether or not the climate change would be influencing the level of strategic crops production in Iran. For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on wheat, barely, maize and rice production. The results of historical data (1961-2014) estimation revealed that no significant negative effect of climate change on the selected crops production were observed yet either in the short term or in the long term while rice, barley, wheat and maize products, respectively, had the highest speed of adjustment in response to any shock and deviation from their long-term equilibrium state as well as in terms of the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, the maize crop would have the greatest increase in production and rice would have the least positive impact per one percent increase in carbon dioxide. In addition, it was found that over the last half century, some negative effects of climate change were seemingly offset by more intense use of water and soil resources, though it would be no longer possible. Therefore, 'application of advanced technologies' and 'extension of climate-smart agriculture' could be considered as the appropriate solutions to prevent the catastrophic consequences of climate change on the agricultural sector. Also, according to the study results, some applicable adaptive measures were suggested to oppose any adverse shock to the crops production in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Economic Impacts
  • Agricultural Sector
  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model
  • Strategic Crops
  • Iran

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