بررسی اثرات توزیعی افزایش قیمت آب، غذا و انرژی در نظام اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

4 دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

آب، غذا و انرژی (یعنی، سوخت‌های فسیلی و برق) سه عنصر اساسی در نظام اقتصادی به‏ شمار می‏روند که در گزارش‏ های بین‌المللی، بر لزوم توجه به روابط میان آنها در راستای دستیابی به توسعه پایدار تأکید شده است. با توجه به روندهای مصرفی و تکانه‏ های گوناگون تأثیرگذار بر پیوند آب، غذا و انرژی در ایران، هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر ردیابی اثرات قیمتی قابل انتقال از سوی هر کدام از اجزای پیوند به یکدیگر در مواجهه با تکانه‌های برون‏ زای قیمتی بود. برای دستیابی به الگوهای انتقال قیمت، از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی (SAM) استفاده شد. در این راستا،‏ از رهیافت تجزیه ضرایب فزاینده، با توجه به قابلیت آن در نشان دادن اثرت توزیعی تکانه قیمتی در خلال نظام اقتصادی مطابق هدف مطالعه حاضر، بهره گرفته شد . همچنین، محاسبه ضرایب فنی- اقتصادی پیوند آب، غذا و انرژی با در نظر گرفتن تعاملات با سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که نه‏ تنها ضرایب قیمتی در حالت کلی متفاوت‏ اند، بلکه در حالت تجزیه‏ شده نیز بیانگر انتقال قیمت به‏ صورت غیریکسان است؛ و از آنجا که غذا و انرژی دارای زیربخش‌های مختلفی هستند، بر هم‏ کنش‌های قیمتی آنها نیز کاملاً متفاوت است؛ به دیگر سخن، اثرات قیمتی زیربخش‌های انرژی بر زیر بخش‌های غذا تفاوت‌های قابل توجه دارند. بنابراین، چنانچه سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی بدون توجه به ضرایب قیمتی صورت گیرد، اثرات غیرمستقیم در خلال نظام اقتصادی به تبعات منفی می‌انجامد. از این رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که پیش از اتخاذ سیاست اقتصادی، نتایج انتقال قیمت به ‏صورت جداول راهنما مورد توجه قرار گیرد و با توجه به تبعات احتمالی، سیاست‌گذاری مناسب صورت پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Distributional Impacts of Rising Water, Food and Energy Prices on Economic System

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Kiani Deh Kiani 1
  • S. Khalilian 2
  • H. Najafi Alamdarlo 3
  • H. Mosavi 3
  • M. H. Vakilpour 4
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
4 PHD in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Water, food and energy (i.e. fossil fuels and electricity) are the three basic elements in the economic system that international reports emphasize the need for attention to the relationship between them in order to achieve sustainable development. Considering the various consumption trends and shocks affecting the connection of water, food and energy in Iran, this study aimed mainly at tracking the price effects that can be transmitted by each of the components of the connection to each other in the face of exogenous price shocks. To obtain price transfer patterns, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) was used. In this regard, the incremental coefficients analysis approach was used, considering its ability to show the distributional effect of price shock through the economic system according to the purpose of the present study. Also, the technical-economic coefficients of water, food and energy connection were calculated by considering interactions with other economic sectors. The results showed that not only the price coefficients were different in the general state, but also in the analyzed state, it indicated the transfer of the price in an unequal way; and since food and energy had different subsectors, their price interactions were also completely different; in other words, the price effects of energy sub-sectors on food sub-sectors had significant differences. Therefore, if economic policy is made without paying attention to price coefficients, indirect effects in the economic system will lead to negative consequences. So, it is suggested that before adopting the economic policy, the results of the price transfer should be taken into consideration in the form of guide tables and appropriate policy should be made according to the possible consequences.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Social Accounting Matrix
  • Multiplier Decomposition
  • Economy Structure

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