پیامد تکانه‏ های تولید و قیمت فرآورده های منتخب غلات با و بدون سیاست جبران درآمد برای امنیت غذایی خانوارها در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

2 نویسندة مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران.

چکیده

امروزه، تغییرات سریع در اقلیم، سیاست­های تجاری و فناوری موجب بروز شوک‏ها یا همان تکانه ‏های تولیدی، قیمتی و درآمدی در بازار فرآورده ­های غلات شده است. هدف مطالعة حاضر بررسی اثرات تکانه ‏های تولیدی، قیمتی و درآمدی بر امنیت غذایی گروه های مختلف جامعه با استفاده از مدل تعادل بازار چندگانه بود. با توجه به اهمیت فرآورده ­های غلات به‏ویژه نان، برنج و ماکارونی در سبد غذایی خانوارهای ایرانی، تکانه‏ های تولیدی، قیمتی و درآمدی برای این گروه از مواد غذایی اعمال و اثرات آنها بر امنیت غذایی خانوارها به ‏تفکیک گروه ­های درآمدی شهری و روستایی و نیز گروه ‏های دارای مشاغل دولتی و آزاد بررسی شد. اطلاعات مورد نیاز از داده ­های خام هزینه و درآمد خانوارهای شهری و روستایی 1387 تا 1397 مرکز آمار ایران استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد که امنیت غذایی جامعه بیشتر تحت تأثیر تکانه تولیدی فرآورده ­های غلات است، به‏ گونه ‏ای که با کاهش بیست درصدی تولید فرآورده‏ های غلات، خانوارهای روستایی فقیر و متوسط، به‏ ترتیب، با میانگین درصد تغییرات کالری 6/15- و 9/10- از حساس­ترین گروه­ ها به‏شمار می‏ روند؛ از سوی دیگر، خانوارهای فقیر دارای مشاغل دولتی، با میانگین درصد تغییرات کالری 9/7، بیشترین آسیب را از افزایش قیمت فرآورده­های غلات متحمل خواهند شد. همچنین، افزایش درآمد خانوارهای فقیر می­ تواند نقش مؤثری در بهبود امنیت غذایی آنها ایفا کند، در حالی که افزایش درآمد خانوارهای با سطح درآمد متوسط باعث تغییر الگوی مصرفی این خانوارها خواهد شد. از این‏رو، لازم است که در راستای حفظ رفاه خانوارهای فقیر، سیاست‏های حمایت قیمتی و درآمدی مناسب اتخاذ شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Implication of Production Shocks and Prices of Selected Cereal Products with and without Income Compensation Policy for Food Security of Households in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elahe Banaei 1
  • Seyed Mojtaba Mojaverian 2
  • Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani 3
  • ABBAS MIRZAEI 4
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Iran
چکیده [English]

Today, rapid changes in climate, trade policies and technology have led to production, price and income shocks in the grain market. This study aimed at investigating the food security of different groups of society due to production, price and income shocks using the multiple market equilibrium model. Due to the importance of cereal products, especially bread, rice and pasta in the food basket of Iranian households, production, price and income shocks for this group of food and their effects on food security of the households by urban and rural income groups as well as government and freelance jobs were surveyed. The required information was extracted from the raw cost and income data of urban and rural households from 2008 to 2018 through the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI). The results showed that the food security of the society is mostly influenced by the production shocks of grain products, so that with a twenty percent decrease in the production of grain products, the poor and middle rural households, respectively, with an average percentage of calorie changes of -15.6 and -10.9 were among the most sensitive groups; on the other hand, poor households with government jobs would suffer the most from the increase in the price of cereal products, with an average percentage change of 7.9 calories. Also, increasing the income of poor households might play an effective role in improving their food security, while increasing the income of middle-income households would change the consumption pattern of these households. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate price and income support policies in order to maintain the welfare of poor households.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Food Security
  • Production Shock
  • Price and Income Shock
  • Cereals
  • Multiple Market Equilibrium Model

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