بررسی آثار سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی بر شاخص‌ قیمت‌ها و هزینة زندگی خانوارها در سال 1401

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسندة مسئول و استادیار مؤسسة مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار مؤسسة مطالعات و پژوهش‌های بازرگانی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

نوسان‏ های نرخ ارز در ایران به‌صورت مستقیم بر قیمت‌های داخلی از مجاری واردات نهاده‌های واسطه‌ای و کالاهای مصرفی اثر دارد. با تشدید تحریم‌ها، از سال 1397، یکی از سیاست‌های ویژة تأمین کالاهای مصرفی جامعه تخصیص ارز ترجیحی به واردات کالاهای اساسی بوده است. با این همه، تعداد کالاهای مشمول این سیاست در طول زمان کاهش یافت، تا آنکه در ابتدای سال 1401، تنها چند کالا مشمول این سیاست بودند. سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی کالاهای اساسی در سال 1401، ‌به‌سبب افزایش هزینه‌های واردات و نیز تغییر قیمت سایر کالاها، بر شاخص قیمت‌ها و هزینه زندگی خانوارها اثرگذار است. در پژوهش حاضر، برای بررسی آثار افزایش قیمت کالاهای اساسی شامل محصولات دام و طیور (نهاده‌های دامی) و نیز روغن خوراکی، از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1395 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که افزایش قیمت محصولات دام و طیور و روغن نباتی، به‏ ترتیب، موجب افزایش 4/5 و 8/7 واحد درصدی شاخص قیمت خواهد شد و شاخص هزینه زندگی خانوارها نیز 9/9 درصد (تعدیل کامل قیمت‌ها) و 9/8 درصد (با تعدیل قیمت‌ها تنها در 57 فعالیت در ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی) خواهد بود. همچنین، اثر افزایش قیمت نهاده‌های دامی و روغن نباتی بر شاخص هزینه زندگی خانوارهایی با سطح درآمدی پایین‌تر به‌مراتب بیشتر است. از سوی دیگر، تأثیر افزایش قیمت محصولات دام و طیور بر هزینه زندگی خانوارها شدیدتر از حذف ارز ترجیحی روغن است. افزون بر این، از آنجا که واحدهای تولیدی در بخش دام و طیور خرد و کوچک به ‏شمار می ‏روند، در اثر حذف ارز ترجیحی، سرمایه در گردش آنها تنها برای خرید دان بیش از پنج برابر افزایش خواهد یافت. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effects of Eliminating the Preferred Exchange Rate on Price Index and Cost of Living for Iranian Households in 2022

نویسندگان [English]

  • zorar Permeh 1
  • Alireza Gharshasebi 2
1 Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Institute of Business Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Institute of Business Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Exchange rate fluctuations in the Iranian economy directly affect domestic prices through import channels of intermediate inputs and final consumer goods. Since 2018, following the intensification of US sanctions, one of the special policies of providing consumer goods to the society has been the allocation of preferential exchange to the import of basic goods. However, the number of goods subject to this policy decreased over time, until at the mid of 2022, only a few goods were subject to this policy. The policy of removing the preferential exchange of basic goods in 2022 has some effects on the price index and the cost of living of Iranian households due to the increase in import costs and also the price change of other goods. In the this research, the social accounting matrix of 2016 was used to investigate the effects of the increase in the price of basic goods, including livestock and poultry products (livestock inputs) and edible oil. The results showed that the increase in the price of livestock and poultry products and vegetable oil would increase the price index by 5.4 and 7.8 percentage units, respectively; and the household cost of living index would increase by 9.9 percent (full adjustment of prices) and 9.8 percent (with price adjustment in only 57 activities in the social accounting matrix). Also, the effect of the increase in the price of animal inputs and vegetable oil on the index of the cost of living of households with a lower income level was found to be much higher. On the other hand, the effect of the increase in the price of livestock and poultry products on the cost of living of households was estimated more severe than the removal of the preferential exchange obtained from oil exports. In addition, since the production units in the livestock and poultry sector are few and small, as a result of the removal of the preferential exchange, their working capital would increase more than five times just for the purchase of feed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange Rate
  • Social Accounting Matrix
  • Price Index and Household Cost of Living

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