بررسی تکانه ‏های قیمتی نهاده ها در بازار تخم مرغ ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسندة مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، بهران، ایران (Adalatsalim@ut.ac.ir).

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تخم مرغ از مهم‏ترین محصولات پروتئینی با جایگاه ویژه در سبد غذایی خانوارهای ایرانی است. تغییرات زیاد قیمت این محصول می­تواند بر خریداران و تولیدکنندگان بسیار تأثیرگذار باشد. سهم بزرگی از هزینه تولید تخم مرغ مربوط به مصرف دو نهاده سویا و ذرت است؛ از این‏رو، قیمت تمام ‏شده و نوسان‏های قیمت تخم مرغ به‏ شدت به قیمت این دو نهاده و نوسان‏های آن وابسته است. در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از آزمون باند، به کشف روابط بلندمدت و کوتاه­ مدت موجود بین قیمت تخم مرغ و قیمت­های سویا و ذرت و همچنین، تأثیر تکانه ‏های قیمتی واردشده به بازار این نهاده ­ها در بازار تخم مرغ پرداخته شد. این آزمون در قالب الکوی خودتوضیح با وقفة گسترده (َARDL) انجام و وجود رابطه هم‏ جمعی بین متغیرها در حالت‏های مختلف بررسی شد. از آنجا که عدم وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرها در هر سه حالت مورد بررسی رد شد، الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM) برای بررسی تکانه‏ های واردشده بر بازار تخم مرغ، مناسب تشخیص داده شد. نتایج پژوهش حاضر نشان داد که تکانه ‏های وارد بر قیمت سویا بیشترین تأثیر را در نوسان قیمت تخم مرغ در کوتاه ‏مدت دارد و در بلندمدت، رهبری قیمت تخم مرغ (افزایش یا کاهش قیمت تخم مرغ) توسط تکانه ‏های وارد بر بازار ذرت صورت می­گیرد. بنابراین، پیشنهاد می‏شود که در کوتاه‏ مدت، سیاست‏گذار با اخذ سیاست­های تعرفه ­ای مناسب (تعرفه متغیر مناسب با نوسان‏های قیمت جهانی نهاده­ ها)، از انتقال تکانه‏ های بازار سویا به تخم مرغ جلوگیری کند؛ همچنین، با توسعه کشت ذرت در مناطق مستعد کشت، نیاز به واردات این محصول را به حداقل رساند، چراکه با خودکفایی در تولید ذرت، تأثیر تکانه های جهانی وارد بر بازار این محصول و بازار تخم مرغ کاهش می ­یابد و مهار تکانه‏ های داخلی آسان‏تر از تکانه ‏های جهانی خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Input Price Shocks in Iranian Egg Market

نویسندگان [English]

  • adalat salim odlou 1
  • atefeh karimi 2
  • Amir Hossein Chizari 3
1 Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran (adalatsalim@ut.ac.ir).
2 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Eggs are one of the most important protein products with a special place in the food basket of Iranian households. The large changes in the price of this product can have a great impact on buyers and producers. A large share of the cost of egg production is related to the consumption of two inputs, soy and corn; therefore, the final price and fluctuations in the price of eggs are highly dependent on the prices of these two inputs and their fluctuations. In this research, by using bounds-testing, the long-term and short-term relationships between egg prices and soybean and corn prices were explored, as well as the effect of the price shocks of these inputs in the egg market. This test was carried out in the form of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables in different modes was investigated. Since the lack of long-term relationship between the variables was rejected in all three studied modes, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was found to be suitable for investigating the shocks on the egg market. The study results showed that the shocks on soybean prices had the greatest effect on the fluctuation of egg prices in the short term, and in the long term, the leadership of the egg price (increase or decrease in the price of eggs) was done by the shocks on the corn market. Therefore, it is suggested that in the short term, the policy-maker should prevent the transfer of shocks from the soy market to eggs by adopting suitable tariff policies (variable tariff appropriate to fluctuations in global input prices); in addition, with the development of corn cultivation in areas susceptible to cultivation, the need to import this product would be minimized, because with self-sufficiency in corn production, the impact of global shocks on the market of this product and the egg market will be reduced, and it will be easier to control domestic shocks than the global shocks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bounds Testing
  • Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
  • Egg
  • Soybean Meal
  • Corn

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