اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی و نقش تحریم‌ها در میزان تولیدات زراعی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.

2 نویسندة مسئول و استادیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.

چکیده

در سال‌­های اخیر، موضوع تغییرات آب‏وهوایی ناشی از گرمایش زمین به یک نگرانی عمده و چالش مهم در سراسر جهان مبدل شده، که نیازمند اقدام جامع و متقابل است؛ و در این میان، کشاورزی وابسته‌­ترین بخش به اقلیم به‌‏شمار می‏‌رود. ایران، با توجه به اقلیم گرم­‌وخشک آن، در خطر آسیب‌­های جهانی این تغییرات بوده و تحریم‌­های همه‏‌جانبه­ نیز بر بخش کشاورزی تأثیر داشته است. در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از مدل اقتصادسنجی حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاح‏‌شده (FMOLS)، به بررسی اثرات متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش و میزان انتشار دی‌­اکسیدکربن (2CO) به‌‏همراه اثر تحریم بر کل تولیدات زراعی ایران طی سال­‌های 1350 تا 1398 پرداخته و از متغیرهای کود شیمیایی و سطح زیر کشت و همچنین، از سرمایه ثابت در ماشین‌‏آلات بخش کشاورزی به‏‌عنوان شاخصی از فناوری استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که همه متغیرها اثر معنی‌­دار بر تولید داشته­‌اند و همچنین، متغیر اقلیمیِ متوسطِ دمای سالانه و مجموع بارش سالانه ارتباط غیرخطی با تولید پیدا کرده و معنی‌­داری آن به‌‏صورت U معکوس است. افزون بر این، متغیرهای کود و سطح زیر کشت اثر مثبت و متغیرهای دی­‌اکسید کربن (2CO) و اثر تحریم رابطه منفی بر کل تولیدات زراعی ایران داشته‌‏اند. از یافته‌­های پژوهش حاضر می‌‏توان در ارائه برنامه­‌های راهبردی برای سیاست‏گذاران در مواجه با تغییرات اقلیمی سود جست که از آن میان، بر پایة پیشنهادهای پژوهش حاضر، دولت می‏‌تواند به سرمایه‏‌گذاری بیشتر در مکانیزاسیون بخش کشاورزی و اعطای تسهیلات و اعتبارات با اولویت آموزش کشاورزان و نیز استفاده از ارقام و واریته‌­های مقاوم به دما به‌‏صورت منطقه‌­ای در برابر پدیده تغییر اقلیم بپردازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abdollah Rajabali Nejad 1
  • niv nozari 2
  • Bita Rahimi Badr 3
1 PhD Student in Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Over the last fifty years, on average, the world has seen one incident per day related to climate change, climate and water hazards, and the number of disasters and natural disasters around the world has increased fivefold. The agricultural sector is the most dependent on the climate, and climate changes in Iran with a hot and dry climate have had significant impacts on agricultural production systems.
Materials and methods : In this study, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model of econometric method, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation and the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions along with the effect of the sanctions on the total agricultural production of Iran during 1971-2019 and the variables of chemical fertilizer and cultivated area as well as the fixed capital in the machinery of the agricultural sector as an indicator of technology were investigated. According to the definition of climate change, which is a change in weather conditions over a period of time, using the FMOLS model can be beneficial in investigating this phenomenon.
Results and Discussion: According to the results of this model, the concerned variables had significant relations with production. The climatic variable of average annual temperature had a non-linear relationship in the form of an inverted U with production. Similarly, the precipitation variable was found to have a non-linear, curve-shaped relationship with production. The physical variables of cultivated area, fertilizer, and production interruption had direct relations with the production. The CO2 variable and the livestock variable of the sanctions had negative effects on the agricultural production of the country.
Conclusion: Considering the phenomenon of climate change and global warming, and the results of this research confirming the effectiveness of production in relation to climate variables (temperature and precipitation), the use of temperature-resistant cultivars and varieties is recommended as a useful and effective way of dealing with climate change. The sanctions variable had a negative effect on the agricultural production of the country, highlighting the importance of the effect of sanctions on the amount of agricultural production and its role in food security.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural Economics
  • Climate Change
  • Sanctions
  • Iran
  • CO2

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