Introduction: The inflexibility in agricultural production structure is a problem that makes it impossible to return sustainability. Therefore, flexibility leads sustainability in the direction of moderation.
Materials and methods: This study aimed at investigating the wheat, barley and maize sustainability trend as well as their comparisons in North and South Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces of Iran. So, the composite indices of environmental, economic, and service productivity sustainability of wheat, barley and maize in the concerned provinces during 2000-2021 were calculated using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approaches.
Results and discussion: In AHP, the environmental, economic and service criteria were found to be important, respectively; the water, water resources, financial and transportation were also important, respectively; the pressurized irrigation, water pricing, income and profit sub-sub-criteria were more important and poison, deep well and chemical fertilizer the sub-sub-criteria were less important. To determine the trend, the sustainability criteria were divided into four time periods including 2000-2005, 2006-2009, 2010-2013 and 2014-2021 for environmental and 2000-2006, 2007-2013, 2014-2018 and 2019-2021 for economic and service sustainability. In most years, the trend of environmental sustainability for the concerned periods was decreased, increased and decreased, respectively; the trend of economic sustainability for the concerned periods was decreased, decreased and increased, respectively; and the trend of service sustainability for the four mentioned periods was decreased. In most years, the environmental sustainability in North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan was more for wheat, maize and barley, respectively and the environmental sustainability in South Kerman was more for barley, wheat and corn, respectively; the economic sustainability in North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan was more for maize, barley and wheat, respectively; and the economic sustainability in South Kerman was more for maize, wheat and barley, respectively; and the service sustainability in Southeast Iran was more for maize, wheat and barley, respectively. Also, the environmental sustainability of wheat was more in North Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Kerman, respectively and that of barley was more in South Kerman, North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, respectively while that of maize was more in Sistan and Baluchistan, North Kerman and South Kerman, respectively. In addition, the economic sustainability of wheat was more in South Kerman, North Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, respectively and that of barley was more in North Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Kerman, respectively while that of maize was more in Sistan and Baluchistan, North Kerman and South Kerman, respectively. The service sustainability of wheat and barley was more in North Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Kerman, respectively and that of maize was more in North Kerman, South Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, respectively. The modified De Martonne results showed that during the study period, the plains of North Kerman were located in dry climate with about 2-5.99 and cold and moderate subclimate; the plains of South Kerman were located in dry climate with about 0-1.99 and 2-5.99 and cold and moderate and warm subclimate; and the plains of Sistan and Baluchistan were located in dry climate with around 0-1.99 and warm and moderate subclimate. The extended De Martonne showed that the sustainability criteria decreased with the change in the average minimum daily temperature in the coldest month of the year.
Conclusions: According to the study results, it can be suggested to provide the basis for increasing sustainability by teaching and promoting productivity-increasing solutions. Also, in order to achieve this goal, the sustainability of agriculture needs the support and proper planning of policymakers, so that it has an upward trend in compliance with global standards. To increase environmental sustainability, more practical solutions should be applied in the consumption of inputs; to increase economic sustainability, financial sustainability needs reforms; and to increase service sustainability, there should be made a revision in packaging and transportation procedures.