بررسی تأثیر فقر بر مهاجرت از روستا به شهر در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی

2 استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی

چکیده

کشور ایران، به عنوان یک کشور در حال توسعه، خواسته یا ناخواسته با پدیدة فقر و مهاجرت از روستا به شهر روبه ­روست که از دیدگاه سیاست‌گذاران از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است و می­تواند در سیاست‌گذاری­های توسعه­ای نقش بسیار مهمی ایفا کند. لذا  هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر فقر بر مهاجرت از روستا به شهر در ایران برای دورة زمانی 1392-1364 با استفاده از الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه­های توزیعی (ARDL) بود. با توجه به نتایج دست آمده، متغیرهای فقر، نسبت دستمزد شهری به روستایی و اختلاف ضریب جینی روستایی از شهری بر مهاجرت از روستا به شهر تأثیر مثبت و معناداری داشته­اند، در حالی که متغیر بهره­وری نیروی­ کار در بخش کشاورزی از نظر آماری تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر مهاجرت از روستا به شهر داشته­ است. لذا پیشنهاد می­شود دولت با اعمال سیاست­هایی زمینة کاهش فقر روستایی و کاهش شکاف دستمزد نیروی کار بین شهر و روستا را فراهم  کند.
طبقه­بندی JEL: I32, C22, R23
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Poverty on the Migration of Rural to Urban Area in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • sasan esfandiari 1
  • S. Nabieian 2
1 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2 دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان
چکیده [English]

Iran, as a developing country, is intentionally or unintentionally facing with the phenomenon of migration from rural to urban area, which is of great importance from the policy makers' point of view. It can play a very important role in the development of policies, therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of poverty on the migration from rural to urban area of Iran for the period of 1985 to 2013 using ARDL model. According to the results, the poverty, the ratio of urban to rural wage and the difference between rural and urban Gini coefficient have significant and positive impact on migration from rural to urban area. While the labor productivity in the agriculture sector have a statistically negative and significant impact on the migration from rural to urban area. Therefore, it is recommended that the government reduce the rural poverty and wage gap between rural and urban area.
 
JEL Classification: I32, C22, R23
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
  • Poverty
  • Emigration
  • Village

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