ارزیابی آثار رفاهی خودکفایی پایدار در بازار گندم ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس

2 استادیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 دکتری اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

     
امنیت غذایی پایدار همواره یکی از دغدغه های اصلی سیاست­گذاران در دولت ها بوده است و گندم به عنوان مهم‌ترین محصول پرمصرف در ایران، سهم بسزایی در تأمین این مهم داشته است. از طرف دیگر، رسیدن به خودکفایی و اعمال سیاست‌های حمایتی برای رسیدن به این هدف همواره در دستور کار قرار داشته، اما این امر فقط در کوتاه­مدت اتفاق افتاده است. بنابراین، ارائه راهکارهایی برای نیل به خودکفایی بلندمدت و پایدار این محصول ضروری به نظر می­رسد. از این رو، هدف این مطالعه بررسی آثار رفاهی خودکفایی پایدار گندم در یک افق ده‌ساله (1403-1393) بوده است. برای این منظور، در تحقیق حاضر، بازار گندم ایران با استفاده از تعادل جزئی چند بازاره مدلسازی شده است. در این مدل، از توابع عرضه داخلی، تقاضا، واردات و تابع موجودی انبار استفاده گردیده و مساحت زیر هر منحنی تحت عنوان مازاد رفاه هر یک از عوامل بازار در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان داد که حرکت به سمت خودکفایی اگرچه در سال­های اولیه موجب زیان­های رفاهی گردیده، اما با ادامه روند، زیان‌های رفاهی جبران و بازار گندم به سمت یک شرایط پایدار همگرا می­شود. بنابراین، بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، رسیدن به خودکفایی بر اساس یک برنامة بلندمدت و افزایش مقدار قیمت تضمینی گندم با حفظ انگیزه­های تولید پیشنهاد می­شود.
 
طبقه‌بندی JEL: C02، C62، D60

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Welfare Effects of Sustainable Self-Sufficiency on Iran’s Wheat Market

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Riyahi 1
  • Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo 2
  • M.H. Vakilpoor 3
1 MSc in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 PHD in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Sustainable food security has always been one of the main concerns of policy makers and wheat, as the most widely used product in Iran, has been contributing to food security. Also, achieving self-sufficiency and applying supportive policies has always been on the agenda, but this has only happened in the short run. Hence the development of strategies to achieve sustainable long-term self-sufficiency of this product is essential. The objective of this study was to evaluate the welfare impacts of sustainable self-sufficiency in a ten-year horizon (2014-2024), therefore, in this study, partial equilibrium approach and multi-market models have been used. In this model, domestic supply, demand, imports and inventories functions have been used, and the area under each curve is defined as surplus welfare. The results showed that the move to self-sufficiency, although in the early years leads to welfare losses, but then the welfare losses have been offset, and wheat market will converge towards a stable condition. Therefore, it is suggested that achieving the self-sufficiency is based on a long-term plan and increasing the guaranteed price should maintain the incentive of wheat production.
 
 
JEL Classification: C02, C62, D60

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Partial Equilibrium
  • Sustainable Self-Sufficiency
  • Wheat
  • Multimarket Models

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