پیامدهای آزادسازی تجاری با تأکید بر امنیت غذایی در ایران: تحلیلی درچارچوب تعادل عمومی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 استاد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

3 استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده


آزادسازی تجاری منافعی همچون افزایش رفاه و افزایش سطح تولید را به همراه دارد اما ممکن است بر برخی از متغیرها مانند امنیت غذایی اثر نامطلوبی داشته باشد. این مطالعه با هدف شبیه­سازی پیامدهای رفاهی و امنیت غذایی آزادسازی تجاری صورت گرفت. آزادسازی تجاری در قالب دو سناریوی حذف موانع تعرفه­ای و حذف هم‌زمان موانع تعرفه­ای و غیرتعرفه­ای ارزیابی شد. ابزار مورد استفاده برای شبیه­سازی، مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه براساس داده­های ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی[1] است. یافته­های مطالعه حاکی از تغییرات محسوس در ترکیب تولید و کاهش تولید محصولات کشاورزی و صنایع کشاورزی است، اما در کل اقتصاد، آزادسازی تجاری موجب کاهش سطح عمومی قیمت­ها، افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی و افزایش مصرف و رفاه خانوارها به‌ویژه خانوارهای دهک­های درآمدی بالا می­شود. همچنین یافته­های مطالعه نشان داد با کاهش موانع تجاری و افزایش واردات محصولات غذایی، شاخص­های امنیت غذایی مبتنی بر تراز تجاری و تولید کاهش می­یابد در حالی که شاخص تأمین مواد غذایی افزایش امنیت غذایی را نشان می­دهد. به این معنی که آزادسازی تجاری موجب افزایش دسترسی به غذا می­شود، اما در عین حال اتکا به تأمین از طریق واردات افزایش می­یابد.
 
طبقه­بندی JEL: F13,F14,Q17, Q18



 .[1]این ماتریس برگرفته از مطالعه فرج زاده (12) می باشد که مطالعه یادشده نیز بر مبنای آخرین ماتریس بانک مرکزی )مربوط به سال 1378) آن را اصلاح و بخش­های مربوط به تجارت و همچنین یارانه­ها را به‌روزرسانی کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Trade Liberalization Consequences with an Emphasis on Food Security in Iran: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Mostajeran 1
  • M. Zibaei 2
  • Z. Farajzadeh 3
1 M.Sc. in Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]


Trade liberalization entails benefits such as higher welfare and output. However, it may affect some variables like food security adversely. This study aims at simulating welfare and food security consequences of trade liberalization. Trade liberalization was investigated under two scenarios namely, the elimination of tariff as well as non-tariff barriers removal (free-trade) using a computable general equilibrium model based on the Iranian social account matrix. The results showed significant changes in output combination as it induces a reduction in output of agricultural sectors and agricultural-based industries. However, in the economy as a whole, it results in lower prices and higher GDP as well as higher consumption and welfare especially throughout higher income groups. It was also found that production and trade balance food security indices tend to decrease as trade barriers are removed and food items imports increases. While household food cover index shows higher food security, meaning that trade liberalization results in higher access to food but it induces more dependence on import-based food supply.
 
JEL Classification: F13, F14, Q17, Q18 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Liberalization
  • welfare
  • Food Security
  • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)

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