رویکردی نوین در برآورد سطح امنیت غذایی در ایران با شاخص GFSI و مطالعه تأثیر شاخص قیمت‌ها و جمعیت بر آن*

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیارگروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی

2 دانشیارگروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی

3 استاد گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی

4 دانش آموخته دکتری گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و بازرگانی

چکیده


امنیت غذایی سنگ بنای یک جامعه توسعه‌یافته و عنصر اصلی سلامت فکری، روانی و جسمی آن جامعه است. از این رو، توجه صحیح و جامع به این موضوع و شناسایی شاخص چندبعدی که تمامی جنبه­های امنیت غذایی از سیری شکمی تا سیری سلولی را تحت پوشش قرار دهد، از اهمیت ویژه­ای در جهت استقلال اقتصادی و سیاسی – علاوه بر جنبه معیشتی- برای محققیان و سیاست­گذاران برخوردار است. بر این اساس، هدف پژوهش حاضر معرفی و محاسبه شاخص نوینی در برآورد سطح امنیت غذایی کشور تحت عنوان شاخص GFSI طی سال­های1360 تا 1392بوده است. همچنین وضعیت امنیت غذایی کشور طی برنامه­های پنج‌ساله توسعه به روش توصیفی و تأثیر برخی متغیرهای اقتصادی نظیر شاخص قیمت­ها و جمعیت بر امنیت غذایی با به کارگیری مدل ARDL و آزمون کرانه­ها بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد امنیت غذایی کشور در طی زمان از یک روند نوسانی برخوردار بوده به­طوری­که برنامه­های اول و چهارم توسعه در زمینه بهبود وضعیت امنیت غذایی کشور ایفای نقش بهتری داشته­اند. همچنین نتایج تخمین­ها سطح قیمت‌ها و جمعیت را عامل منفی و بازدارنده بهبود امنیت غذایی در بلندمدت و کوتاه­مدت نشان داد.
 
طبقه‌بندی JEL : Q18, C51, C43, H11

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

A New Approach for Estimating the Food Security Level in Iran with the GFSI Index and Studying the Influence of Price Indexes and Population on It

نویسندگان [English]

  • Z. Karimi Takanlou 1
  • R. Ranjpour 2
  • M.A. Motafakkerazad 3
  • A. Assadzadeh 1
  • F. Bagherzadeh Azar 4
1 Associate Professor, Tabriz University, Economic and Management Department
2 Associate Professor, Tabriz University, Economic and Management Department
3 Professor, Tabriz University, Economic and Management Department
4 Tabriz University, Economic and Management Department
چکیده [English]


Food security is the key element of the mental and physical health of the community. So, accurate and comprehensive attention to this issue and recognize a multidimensional index to cover all aspects of food security is important to economic and political interdependence – in addition to economic aspects- for researchers and policymakers. Therefore, the aim of this study was to introduce and calculate a new index to estimate the food security level with GFSI index during 1980- 2013. Also, the food security situation during five years development programs descriptively and impact of price indexes and population on food security by ARDL model and Bound test were studied. The result showed that the food security fluctuates during the time. Especially food security enhances more during 1th and 4th five- year development plan. Also, the result showed the level of prices and population as negative factors on food security in short and long term.
 
JEL Classification: Q18, C51, C43, H11

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Food Security
  • GFSI Index
  • Five- Year Development Plan
  • Consumer Price Index
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