آثار سیاست حمایت از تولیدکننده بر ضرایب خودکفایی گوشت مرغ در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی

2 استادیار اقتصادکشاورزی

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی

چکیده

در این پژوهش به تحلیل بین‌برنامه‌ای شاخص حمایت از تولیدکننده گوشت مرغ در ایران طی برنامه­های مختلف توسعه و طی سال­های 90-1368 پرداخته شد. سپس شاخص خودکفایی گوشت مرغ در ایران طی این دوره محاسبه و ویژگی‌های آن ارزیابی و تحلیل شد. مسئله اصلی در این پژوهش آن است که آیا در ایران حمایت‌ از تولید‌کنندگان منجر به بهبود وضعیت تولید و ضرایب خودکفایی در کشور شده است؟ به این منظور، پایایی متغیرها برای برآورد الگوی خودکفایی بررسی شد و پس از تعیین وقفه بهینه خودکفایی و حمایت از تولیدکننده، آزمون علیت گرنجر انجام گرفت و درنهایت، الگوی VAR برآورد گردید. نتایج نشان داد که سطح تغییرات شاخص خودکفایی گوشت مرغ در کوتاه‌مدت در هر دوره به میزان حمایت از تولید‌کنندگان گوشت مرغ در دوره قبل وابسته است. ضریب برآوردشده برای متغیر حمایت از تولیدکننده نشان داد که درکوتاه‌مدت حمایت‌ از تولیدکنندگان گوشت مرغ کارایی مناسبی در ایجاد تغییرات شاخص خودکفایی گوشت مرغ نداشته است. نتایج بررسی واکنش آنی نیز نشان داد که آثار شوک‌های حاصل از تغییر سیاست‌های حمایتی بر شاخص خودکفایی در دوره‌های مختلف با نوسان همراه بوده و پس از 7 دوره این اثر تعدیل شده است.
 
طبقه‌بندی JEL:Q11, E23, M11 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Producer Support Policy Effects on Self-Sufficiency Coefficient of Chicken Meat in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hame Rafiee 1
  • A. Amjadi 2
  • Sh. Ghaznavi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, Agricultural Economics Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)
2 مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
3 دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده [English]

In this study, the index of producer supports was investigated among the development programs in period 1989-2011. Then self-sufficiency index in chicken meat during this period was calculated and its properties were evaluated. In this study the main challenge is whether the producers’ support in Iran will lead to improvements in production and self-sufficiency coefficients or not. For this purpose the variables stationary was investigated for estimating self-sufficiency model and after determining the optimal lag of self-sufficiency and Producer Support Estimate (PSE), then Granger causality test and finally the VAR model were estimated. The results showed that changes in the level of self-sufficiency index of chicken meat in the short term in each period is dependent on the support of the producers of chicken meat in the previous period. The estimated coefficient of PSE showed that in short term, PSE index of chicken meat producers has not been a suitable efficiency in changes of self-sufficiency index. The results of impulse response function showed that the effects of shocks to self-sufficiency index due to changes support policies in different periods is varied and this effect will be adjusted after seven periods.
 
JEL Classification: Q11, E23, M11

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • PSE
  • Self-Sufficiency
  • Chicken Meat
  • Iran

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