بررسی اثر سیاست حمایت از تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان بر اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

نیروی‌کار، به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین نهاده‌های تولید، نقش مهمی در اقتصاد کشور دارد. این عامل در برنامه‌ریزی‌های اقتصادی نقش دوگانه‌ای دارد به گونه‌ای که از یک طرف در حکم عامل توسعه و از طرف دیگر به عنوان هدف توسعه مطرح است. امروزه یکی از مسائل اساسی اقتصاد ایران بیکاری و تبعات ناشی از آن به شمار می‏آید. از جمله سیاست‌هایی که به نظر می‌رسد بر این امر مؤثر باشد، سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت است. لذا در این پژوهش به بررسی اثر سیاست‌های حمایت از تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی در دوره 1391-1360 در چارچوب الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM) پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که سیاست‌های حمایت از تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده بخش کشاورزی اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی کشور دارد. همچنین تورم و نسبت سرمایه به سطح زیرکشت در دوره‌ مورد بررسی اثر منفی بر اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی دارد. این نتایج دلیلی بر رد منحنی فیلیپس در بخش کشاورزی ایران و تأییدی بر رابطه جانشینی بین سرمایه و نیروی کار در این بخش است. ضریب متغیر ECM الگو، که مبین سرعت تعدیل الگوی پویای کوتاه‏مدت به سمت تعادل بلندمدت می‏باشد، در پژوهش پیش‌رو برابر با 149/0-  به دست آمد که نشان‌دهنده‌ این است که در هر دوره، 15 درصد از خطای عدم تعادل از بین خواهد رفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Producers and Consumers Support Policies on Employment in the Agricultural Sector

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Noroozi 1
  • S.S. Hosseini 2
  • V. Ansari 3
1 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

As one of the most important productive inputs, workforce plays a significant role in the economy of any country. This factor has a dual role in economic planning so that on the one hand, it acts as a development agent, and serves as a development goal on the other hand. At present, one of the main issues of Iran's economy is unemployment and it consequences. Among the policies that seem to be effective are government support policies. Therefore, this research investigated the effect of producer and consumer support policies on agricultural employment in the period of 1981-2012 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicated that consumer and producer support policies in agricultural sector had a positive and significant effect on the employment of the agricultural sector in the country (Iran). Also, the results show that inflation and capital to cultivated area ratio during the studied period had a negative effect on employment in agriculture sector. These results disapprove the Phillips curve in Iran's agricultural sector and confirm the substitution relationship between capital and workforce in this sector. The coefficient of ECM model, which indicates the modulation rate of the short-term dynamic pattern toward long-term equilibrium, is equal to -0.149 indicating that 15% of the imbalance error will be eliminated in each period.

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