بررسی اثر سیاست حمایت از تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان بر اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

نیروی‌کار، به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین نهاده‌های تولید، نقش مهمی در اقتصاد کشور دارد. این عامل در برنامه‌ریزی‌های اقتصادی نقش دوگانه‌ای دارد به گونه‌ای که از یک طرف در حکم عامل توسعه و از طرف دیگر به عنوان هدف توسعه مطرح است. امروزه یکی از مسائل اساسی اقتصاد ایران بیکاری و تبعات ناشی از آن به شمار می‏آید. از جمله سیاست‌هایی که به نظر می‌رسد بر این امر مؤثر باشد، سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت است. لذا در این پژوهش به بررسی اثر سیاست‌های حمایت از تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی در دوره 1391-1360 در چارچوب الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM) پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که سیاست‌های حمایت از تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده بخش کشاورزی اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی کشور دارد. همچنین تورم و نسبت سرمایه به سطح زیرکشت در دوره‌ مورد بررسی اثر منفی بر اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی دارد. این نتایج دلیلی بر رد منحنی فیلیپس در بخش کشاورزی ایران و تأییدی بر رابطه جانشینی بین سرمایه و نیروی کار در این بخش است. ضریب متغیر ECM الگو، که مبین سرعت تعدیل الگوی پویای کوتاه‏مدت به سمت تعادل بلندمدت می‏باشد، در پژوهش پیش‌رو برابر با 149/0-  به دست آمد که نشان‌دهنده‌ این است که در هر دوره، 15 درصد از خطای عدم تعادل از بین خواهد رفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Producers and Consumers Support Policies on Employment in the Agricultural Sector

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Noroozi 1
  • S.S. Hosseini 2
  • V. Ansari 3
1 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

As one of the most important productive inputs, workforce plays a significant role in the economy of any country. This factor has a dual role in economic planning so that on the one hand, it acts as a development agent, and serves as a development goal on the other hand. At present, one of the main issues of Iran's economy is unemployment and it consequences. Among the policies that seem to be effective are government support policies. Therefore, this research investigated the effect of producer and consumer support policies on agricultural employment in the period of 1981-2012 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicated that consumer and producer support policies in agricultural sector had a positive and significant effect on the employment of the agricultural sector in the country (Iran). Also, the results show that inflation and capital to cultivated area ratio during the studied period had a negative effect on employment in agriculture sector. These results disapprove the Phillips curve in Iran's agricultural sector and confirm the substitution relationship between capital and workforce in this sector. The coefficient of ECM model, which indicates the modulation rate of the short-term dynamic pattern toward long-term equilibrium, is equal to -0.149 indicating that 15% of the imbalance error will be eliminated in each period.

1. Barikani, A. and Shahbazi, H. (2016). The study of the effect of subsidy support policies on inputs on total factor productivity of Iranian agricultural sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 24 (93): 247-270. (Persian)

2. Baseri, B. and Jahangard, E. (2008). Analyze the capacity of the agricultural sector of employment. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 15(59):110-146. (Persian)

3.Bidabad, B. (2004). Communication between the part and the target to increase employment. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 12:46. (Persian)

4.Cakmak, E. H. (2003). Evaluation of the past and future agricultural policies in Turkey: are they capable to achieve sustainability?. Department of Economics Middle East Technical University, 155-165.

5.Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Time series database (www.tsd.cbi.ir). (Persian)

6.Esfandiari, A.A. and Tarahommi, F. (2009). Investigating the employment creation of Iran's economic sectors with an emphasis on agriculture. Agricultural Economics and Development, 17(67): 93-115. (Persian)

7.Fomby, B.T. (1998). How to model multivariate time series data, Department of Economics. Southern Methodist University, Dallas.

8.Gopinath, M., Mullen, K. and Gualti, A. (2004). Domestic support to agriculture in the European Union and the United States: policy developments since 1996. International Food Policy Research Institute, MTID Discussion Paper No. 75.

9.Hosseini, S. S. (2006). The economic models of agricultural price and policy analysis. University of Tehran Press 2799, Publishing Institute. (Persian)

10.Hosseini, S. S., Noroozi, H., Pakravan, M. R. and Mehrparvar Hosseini, S.E. (2016). The effect of supportive government policy on consumers and agricultural producers on food security in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economic Research and Development, 47 (4): 755-769. (Persian)

11.Hosseini, S. S., Pakravan, M. R., Gilanpour, O. and Atghayi, M. (2011). Investigating the effects of protection policy on agriculture sector TFP. Agricultural Economics & Development, 25(4): 507-516. (Persian)

12.Ivanov, V. and Kilian, L. (2005). A practitioner’s guide to lag order selection for VAR impulse response analysis. Studies inNonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 9: 1-34.

13.Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210.

14.Johanson, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 54 -231.

15.Khaledi, K. and Haghighat Nejhad Shirazi, A. (2007). Critique of the policy of increasing employment in the agricultural sector of Iran with an emphasis on the fourth development plan. Journal of Development and Productivity, 6(2): 39-48.

16.Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New introduction to multiple time series analysis. New York: Springer.

17.MehRpervar Hosseini, S.E. (2012). Investigating the factors affecting the trade balance reaction. Master Thesis, Faculty of Economics and Development. University of Tehran. Tehran. (Persian)

18.Nasirizadeh, H. and Totonchi, J. (2003). Tourism and employment. Travelling on the World and Employment Seminar; Policies and Programs for Developing Tourism in Iran. (Persian)

19.OECD (2002). Methodology for the measurement of support use inpolicy evaluation. OECD, Paris.

20.OECD (2007). Agricultural policis in non-OECD countries: Monitoring and Evaluation, OECD, Paris.

21.OECD (2008). WWW.OECD.COM/ PSE/CSE database 2008

22.Orden, D., Mullen, K., Sun, D. and Gulati, A. (2004). Agricultural producer support estimates for developing countries measurement issues and evidence from India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam. International Food Policy Research Institute, Research Report Abstract, 152: 1-140.

23.Pedram, M. and Habibifar, M. (2005). Study long run cointegration of labor demand and effective variable on that in industry of Iran by Johanson cointegration. Journal of Economic Research, 3: 141-161. (Persian)

24.Phillips P.C. and Ploberger W. (1994). Posterior odd testing for a unit root with data based model selection. EconometricTheory, 10: 774-808.

25.Salami, H. and Jahangard, H. (1388). Modeling time series for orange and apple comsumption in Iran.   Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, No. 67: 117-134. (Persian)

26.Shareef, R. and Tran, V. (2007). An aggregate import demand functions for Australia: a cointegration approach. School of Accounting, Finance and Economics and FEMARC Working Paper Series Edith Cowan University. December 2007, Working Paper 0708.

27.Stampini, M. and Chouchane, A.V. (2011). Labor market dynamics in Tunisia: the issue of youth unemployment.  Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 7(2).

28.Sabouhi, M. and Ghaffari Moghaddam, P. (2007). Investigating the factors affecting immigration from village to city in Iran. Sixth Iranian Agriculture Economics Conference, Mashhad, Iran.

29.Statistics Center of Iran, National Portal of Statistics, Data and Statistical Information (www.amar.org.ir). (Persian)

30.Taghavi, M. and Rezaee, A. (2004). The effect of fiscal policy on consumption and employment in the Iranian economy. Economic Journal, 15:109-132. (Persian)

31.Tarahommi, F. and Esfandiari, A.A. (2010). Ranking of productive and productive potentials of Iranian economy sectors. Economic Research, 10 (3): 267-286. (Persian)

32.Tayebi, F. and Torkamani, J. (2007). Determinance of variable on labor demand and employee in agricultural sector. 6th Agricultural Economy Confrenss. (Persian)