برآورد ارزش‌افزودة بالقوة زیربخش‌های کشاورزی ایران (مقایسة رهیافت‌های نوین و مرسوم)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

برآورد ارزش افزوده بالقوه زیربخش‌های کشاورزی و شکاف آن با مقادیر بالفعل، نقش مهمی در تنظیم سیاست‌های مرتبط با رشد بخش ایفا می‌کند. هدف اصلی در این مقاله تخمین ارزش افزوده بالقوه زیربخش‌های کشاورزی ایران بوده است. به این منظور از فیلترهای هودریک پرسکات، باکستر کینگ و کریستیانو فیتز جرالد و آمار سالانه برای دوره زمانی 1370 الی 1393 استفاده شد. پس از برآورد ارزش افزوده بالقوه و محاسبه شکاف آن با مقادیر بالفعل، به بررسی اثر مقدار تولید، قیمت، تسهیلات و یارانه بر شکاف ارزش افزوده در زیربخش‌ها پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که ارزش افزوده بالقوه در دوره زمانی مورد بررسی اختلاف فاحشی با مقدار بالفعل دارد و در اکثر مواقع بیشتر از آن است. این امر نشان‌دهنده ظرفیت‌های بلااستفاده بخش کشاورزی است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل‌های رگرسیونی نیز نشان داد که در زیربخش‌های دامپروری و شیلات میزان تولید اثر معنی دار و مثبتی بر شکاف دارد. در پایان، توجه بیشتر به تأمین  زیرساخت‌ها و اعتبارات مورد نیاز جهت استفاده از ظرفیت‌های بالقوه زیربخش‌های مختلف پیشنهاد شد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Potential Value-Added of Agricultural Subsectors in Iran: A Comparison between Modern and Traditional Approaches

نویسندگان [English]

  • z. omidvar 1
  • R. moghaddasi 2
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Assessment of potential value-added of agricultural subsectors and the gap between the potential and actual value-added plays a significant role in setting the policies related to the growth of agriculture sector. This study aimed mainly at estimating the potential value-added of agricultural subsectors in Iran. For this purpose, Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter-King, and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters were applied on the annual statistical data for the period spanning from 1991 to 2014. Once finished with the assessment of the potential value-added and the gap between potential and actual value-added, the research went for an investigation on the effects of production level, price, facilities and subsidies on the value-added gap across the subsectors. The results indicated a significant difference between potential and actual value-added during the considered period, pointing out unused capacities across the agricultural sector. Regression analysis results also confirmed significant and positive contributions of production level to the gap in livestock and fishery subsectors. Accordingly, it was recommended to pay further attention to the provision of required infrastructures and credits for using potential capacities in different subsectors. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Potential Value-added
  • Hodrick-Prescott Filter
  • Baxter-King Filter
  • Christiano-Fitzgerald Filter
  • Agriculture

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