مدیریت ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی با استفاده از روشهای تصمیمگیری چندشاخصة فازی در شهرستان فردوس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین بخش­های آسیب­پذیر از پدیده خشکسالی، کشاورزی بوده که تأثیر مهمی بر اقتصاد کشورها دارد. در بسیاری از پژوهش­های پیشین، مدیریت ریسک خشکسالی به عنوان یکی از مناسب­ترین روش­های علمی مدیریت خشکسالی مطرح شده است. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با اهداف شناسایی شاخص­های تبیین‏کننده ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی و ایجاد چارچوبی برای تدوین یک برنامه عملیاتی مقابله با ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی در شهرستان فردوس استان خراسان جنوبی انجام شده است. در این پژوهش با تهیه لیستی از مهم‌ترین اقدامات پاسخ‌گویی به ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی و تعیین اهمیت نسبی هر یک از آنها، اولویت­بندی اولیه این اقدامات و سپس اولویتبندی نهایی آنها براساس اولویت­بندی اولیه، هزینه اجرا و مشکلات اجرا صورت گرفت. با توجه به اولویت­بندی شاخص­های ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی و اقدامات پاسخ­گویی به ریسک براساس نظر خبرگان و متغیرهای کلامی، در این پژوهش از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی برای تعیین اوزان شاخص­ها و از روش تاپسیس فازی برای اولویت­بندی اقدامات پاسخ­گویی به ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی استفاده شد. با استفاده از رویکرد پیشنهادی این تحقیق در مورد مدیریت ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی در شهرستان فردوس استان خراسان جنوبی مشخص شد مهمترین شاخص­ تبیین‏کننده این ریسک «کاهش آب‌های سطحی و زیرزمینی برای استفاده در بخش کشاورزی» و مناسبترین اقدام برای پاسخگویی به آن «آبیاری زیرسطحی» بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Agricultural Drought Risk Management Using Fuzzy MADM Methods in Ferdows County of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. M. Khalili 1
  • Z. Najiazimi 2
  • S. Hersi 3
1 PhD Student of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics and Administration Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Management Department, Faculty of Economics and Administration Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 BA Student in Governmental Management, Faculty of Economics and Administration Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Agriculture is one of the most important vulnerable sectors regarding drought phenomenon with significant impacts on the economy of countries. In many previous studies, drought risk management has been mentioned as one of the best scientific methods of drought management. In this regard, this study was conducted in Ferdows County, South Khorasan province of Iran, aiming at both identifying the drought risk indexes to assess agricultural drought risk factors of the region and providing a framework to plan an operational risk response. Precise determination of these indexes and their relative importance makes it possible to assess and analyze drought risk of that region; moreover, a definite framework for agricultural drought risk management can be developed. In this paper, a list of possible drought risk response actions was provided and then they were prioritized. Based on this initial prioritization, cost and difficulties of executing each drought risk response action, the final prioritization of drought risk response actions were determined. Since the risk assessment indexes and drought risk response actions were evaluated based on opinions of experts and linguistic variables, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchal Process was used to determine the weight of each risk index, and Fuzzy TOPSIS was applied to determine the priority of risk response actions. The study results indicated the pivotal role of “reducing the groundwater and surface water use of agricultural activities” in addressing the agricultural drought and “subsurface irrigation” as the best reaction treatment

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Risk Management
  • Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
  • Fuzzy TOPSIS
  • Ferdows (County)

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