ارزیابی پیامدهای ملی و منطقه‌ای خشکسالی در حوزة تولید و اشتغال با استفاده از مدل تحلیل تعادل عمومی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 استاد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

3 استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

ارزیابی جامع آثار اقتصادی خشکسالی اطلاعات مهمی برای برنامه­ها و سیاست­های تعدیل خشکسالی فراهم می­کند. بر همین اساس، آثار خشکسالی بر تولید و اشتغال اقتصاد ایران در قالب دو مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه (CGE) تک­منطقه­ای و مدل تعادل عمومی چندمنطقه‏ای (MRCGE) ارزیابی شد. داده­های مورد نیاز این پژوهش از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی 1380 و جدول داده- ستانده 1385 به دست آمد. خشکسالی در قالب سه سطح ضعیف، متوسط و شدید و به صورت کاهش دسترسی به آب لحاظ شد. نتایج مدل تعادل عمومی تک­منطقه­ای نشان داد که تولید ناخالص داخلی 7/1 تا 5/5 درصد براساس شدت خشکسالی کاهش می­یابد. همچنین ارقام متناظر به دست آمده از الگوی چند­منطقه­ای در دامنه 4/6-2/2 درصد قرار دارد. کاهش تولید ناخالص در استان­های کرمان، همدان، فارس و اردبیل نیز بیش از سایر استان­هاست. همچنین مشخص گردید کاهش تولید موجب کاهش اشتغال شده، اما میزان کاهش اشتغال به مراتب پایین­تر از تولید بوده است. به کارگیری تدابیری برای کاهش مصرف آب و همچنین ایجاد مشاغل در حوزه صنایع روستایی به عنوان توصیه­های مطالعه مطرح شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

National and Regional Implications of Drought for Production and Employment: A General Equilibrium Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Z. Khiz 1
  • M. Zibaei 2
  • Z. Farajzadeh 3
1 MSc Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is a natural hazard that causes the production and income losses and has severe effects on the poor households. In this context, a comprehensive assessment of economic impacts of drought provides critical information to drought mitigation policies and programs. To this end, the effects of drought on the output and employment of Iran's economy as a whole were examined using two models including a single-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) and a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (MRCGE) model. Applied data were obtained from the social accounting matrix (SAM) of year 2001 and Iranian input-output table of year 2006. The drought defined as lower access to water was considered in three scenarios of weak, moderate and sever options. The results obtained from single-regional CGE model indicated that GDP decreased by 1.7 to 5.5 percent based on the severity of drought; the corresponding values for MRCGE were 2.2-6.4 percent. Reduction of regional gross output for Kerman, Hamedan, Fars, and Ardabil provinces were more than those for other provinces. As shown by the results, a decrease in output induced a fall in employment, but a reduction in employment was found lower than those of output. Finally, the study recommended developing the water-saving measures as well as creating more jobs in rural industries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Output
  • Employment
  • Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium (MRCGE)

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