ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی دشت همدان- بهار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری و مربی گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه، یکی از مهم‏ترین چالش‏ ها در حفظ ثبات و پایداری توسعه اقتصادی منطقه‌ای و ملی پدیده تغییرات اقلیمی و پیامدهای آن است که تهدیدی جدی برای نظام‏ های طبیعی، منابع آب و رفاه اجتماعی و اقتصادی محسوب می‏شود. از این ‏رو، درک رابطه بین تغییرات اقلیمی و متغیرهای اقتصادی- اجتماعی مانند امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی که در مطالعات اخیر، کمتر بدان پرداخته شده، ضروری است. هدف مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی آثار رفاهی و امنیت غذایی تغییرات اقلیمی در دشت همدان- بهار بود. در این راستا، متغیرهای بارندگی و دما در افق 2070 بر اساس سناریوهای اقلیمی منتخب پیش‌بینی شد و سپس، با برآورد تابع واکنش عملکرد، محاسبه تغییرات عملکرد ناشی از پارامترهای آب‏ و هوایی ؛ و در نهایت، با تدوین یک الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی غیرخطی شامل ابعاد اقتصادی، زراعی و هواشناسی، اثرات بالقوه تغییر اقلیم بر رفاه اقتصادی و امنیت غذایی تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی منتخب در افق 2070 در مقایسه با سال پایه (2018) ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی با کاهش دسترسی به آب، از یک سو، با کاهش تولید و افزایش قیمت موادغذایی، موجب کاهش مازاد رفاه مصرف‏کننده می‏ شود و از سوی دیگر، موجب افزایش درآمد خالص مزرعه خواهد شد، اما همچنان در تمامی سناریوها رفاه اقتصادی کل کاهش خواهد یافت؛ بنابراین، حتی با تغییرات خوش‏بینانه اقلیم، رفاه مصرف‏ کننده و به تبع آن، امنیت غذایی کاهش می ‏یابد. همچنین، بر پایة یافته ‏های پژوهش حاضر، بیشترین کاهش مازاد مصرف‏ کننده در تمامی سناریوها مربوط به محصولات راهبردی تأمین‌کننده امنیت غذایی خواهد بود؛ با این حال، با اتخاذ راهبرد سازگاری بهبود راندمان آبیاری در سناریوهای مورد بررسی به مقادیر مختلف، زیان رفاهی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم به‏‏طور کامل خنثی خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Moazzezi 1
  • S. H. Mosavi 2
  • Gh. Yavari 3
  • M. Bagheri 4
1 Ph.D. Student and Instructor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Today, one of the most important challenges in maintaining the stability and sustainability of regional and national economic development is the phenomenon of climate change and its consequences, which is a serious threat to natural systems, water resources and social and economic well-being. Therefore, understanding the relationship between climate change and socio-economic variables such as food security and economic welfare, is necessary.This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security and economic welfarein the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this regard, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted underselected climate scenarios and by estimating yield response functions, the products yield changes due to climatic parameters were measured. Finally, by developing a nonlinear mathematical planning model including economic, agronomic and meteorological dimensions, the potential effects of climate change on economic welfare and food security under the selected climatic scenarios in 2070 horizon compared to 2018(baseline) were evaluated. The results showed that climate change on the 2070 horizon would reduce water access, food production and supply, and ultimately reduce consumer welfare surpluses and increase food prices. Accordingly, the farm income would increase but still total economic welfare decline. On the other hand, the largest reduction in consumer surplus in all scenarios is related to strategic products that provide food security. However, the strategy of improving irrigation efficiency by 4.7, 20.8, 5.5 and 24.1%, respectively in scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, will be completely neutralize welfare losses due to climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Food security
  • Economic welfare
  • Consumer surplus
  • Climate change
  • Hamedan-Bahar plain

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