بهینه‌یابی واردات و تولید گوشت قرمز ایران بأ تأکید بر پایداری منابع آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول و استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.

چکیده

برای تأمین پروتیئن حیوانی خانوارهای ایران، گوشت قرمز از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. اما  عرضه این محصول در سال‌های گذشته از چالش‌های عمده‌ای از جمله نوسان‏ های ارزی، قاچاق دام به کشورهای همسایه و واردات گوشت منجمد با ارز یارانه ای  تأثیر پذیرفته است. افزون بر این، همواره در کشورمان، خودکفایی در تولید این محصول مورد تأکید قرار گرفته است، که البته با توجه به قرار گرفتن ایران در مرحله تنش آبی بر اساس شاخص «فالکن مارک»، منجر به تشدید این بحران خواهد شد. از این ‏رو، در مطالعه حاضر، با بررسی سناریوهای مختلف تولید داخلی و واردات گوشت قرمز، به‏ طور هم‏زمان، به دو هدف صرفه جویی در هزینه ‏های تأمین و میزان مصرف آب پرداخته شد. بدین منظور، از برنامه ریزی چندهدفه با اهداف حداقل ‏سازی هزینه تأمین نیاز داخلی و میزان رد پای آب در تولید داخلی و داده های بازه زمانی 2000 تا 2018 استفاده شد. سناریوهای منتخب شامل ترکیبی از اهداف یادشده بودند که وزن های مختلف به آنها تعلق گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تأمین سی تا چهل درصد از نیاز داخل از طریق تولید داخلی بر اساس وزن های اختصاص‏ یافته به اهداف تعیین‏ شده توجیه پذیر است؛ و باید باقی‏مانده نیاز کشور از سایر کشورها تأمین شود. همچنین، یافته ها نشان داد که ترکیب یادشده برای تولید داخل و واردات قادر است هزینه های تأمین نیاز داخل و رد پای آب را به طور محسوس کاهش دهد، به گونه ای که افزون بر کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای، به ‏طور متوسط، از میزان مصرف آب 63 درصد و از هزینه های تأمین نیاز داخلی 42 درصد کاسته شود. در پایان، واردات گوشت گوسفند از استرالیا و یا گوشت گاو با استخوان از برزیل پیشنهاد شد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimization of Import and Production of Iranian Red Meat with Emphasis on Sustainability of Water Resources

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Fathi 1
  • A. Sheikhzeionddin 2
  • Z. Farajzadeh 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Red meat plays an important role in providing animal protein of Iranian households. However, its supply has experienced some challenges stemming from exchange rate fluctuations, smuggling livestock to the neighboring countries, and importing frozen meat financed by subsidized currency. In addition, there has been significant emphasis on self-sufficiency and providing the red meat domestically. On the other hand, based on Falcon Mark index, Iran has encountered water tension, the situation that may be getting worse as self-sufficiency is more focused. Regarding the problem, this study aimed at investigating different scenarios of domestically-produced and import of red meat with due consideration of simultaneously minimizing the costs of red meat and water use. For this purpose, multiobjective programing was applied using data for 2000-2018 in which minimization of spending for domestic consumption and water footprint embodied in domestic production was included. The selected scenarios were different combinations of the weights for minimization objectives. The results showed that depending on the weights assigned to the objectives, providing 30-40 percent of domestic need from domestically produced red meat was recommended while the remaining need might be provided via imports. The findings revealed that recommended combination for domestically-produced and imported red meat could reduce the spending on domestic need and water footprint significantly, resulting in 63 percent and 42 percent reduction in water use and cost spending, respectively; in addition, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced. These results are the result of importing sheep meat from Australia or cattle meat with bones from Brazil. In spite of a significant reduction in the objectives’ values, the selected countries for import revealed a low diversity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Import
  • Water Footprint
  • Red Meat
  • Multi-objective Planning
  • Iran
  1. Allan, J.A. (1998). Virtual water: a strategic resource. Ground water, 36(4): 545-547.
  2. Amarasinghe, U.A., Malik, R.P.S. and Sharma, B.R. (2010). Overcoming growing water scarcity: Exploring potential improvements in water productivity in India. Natural Resources Forum. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  3. Barakat, S., Ibrahim, H. and Elbaset, A.A. (2020). Multi-objective optimization of grid-connected PV-wind hybrid system considering reliability, cost, and environmental aspects. Sustainable Cities and Society, 60, 102178.
  4. Boulay, A.-M., Bare, J., De Camillis, C., Döll, P., Gassert, F., Gerten, D.,.. and Pfister, S. (2015). Consensus building on the development of a stress-based indicator for LCA-based impact assessment of water consumption: outcome of the expert workshops. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 20(5): 577-583.
  5. Caruso, G., Gattone, S., Fortuna, F. and Di Battista, T. (2021). Cluster Analysis for mixed data: An application to credit risk evaluation. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 73, 100850.
  6. Chapagain, A. K. and Hoekstra, A. (2003). Virtual water flows between nations in relation to trade in livestock and livestock products. Delft, The Netherlands: UNESCO-IHE.
  7. del Moral, L.F.G., Morgado, A. and Esquivel, J.A. (2021). Reflectance spectroscopy in combination with cluster analysis as tools for identifying the provenance of Neolithic flint artefacts. Journal of Archaeological Science: Report, 37, 103041.
  8. Drastig, K., Prochnow, A., Kraatz, S., Klauss, H. and Plöchl, M. (2010). Water footprint analysis for the assessment of milk production in Brandenburg (Germany). Advance in Geosciences, 27: 65-70.
  9. Ercin, A.E., Mekonnen, M.M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2013). Sustainability of national consumption from a water resources perspective: the case study for France. Ecological Economics, 88: 133-147.
  10. FAO, F. (2019). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations-Statistic Division (https://www. fao. org/faost at/en/# data)
  11. FAO, F. (2017). Retrieved from: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home.
  12. FAO, F. (2018). Disponível em: http://www. fao. org/faostat/en/# home.
  13. Farajzadeh, Z. and Esmaeili, A. (2017). The welfare effects of rising imported food prices in Iran. Iraninan journal of economics studies, 5(2): 189-208.
  14. Farajzadeh, Z., Zhu, X. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2017). Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts. Economics Modelling, 63: 75-85.
  15. Farajzadeh, Z. (2012). Environmental and welfare impacts of trade and energy policy reforms in Iran. Unpublished dissertation. Shiraz University. Shiraz. (Persian)
  16. Francisco, S. R. and Ali, M. (2006). Resource allocation tradeoffs in Manila’s peri-urban vegetable production systems: An application of multiple objective programming. Agricultural Systems, 87(2): 147-168.
  17. Frischknecht, R., Pfister, S., Bunsen, J., Haas, A., Känzig, J., Kilga, M.,... Reinhard, J. (2019). Regionalization in LCA: current status in concepts, software and databases—69th LCA forum, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, 13 September, 2018. The International Journal of:ife Cycle Assessment, 24(2): 364-369.
  18. Gold, S. and Seuring, S. (2011). Supply chain and logistics issues of bio-energy production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 19(1): 32-42.
  19. Hoekstra, A. (2010). The relation between international trade and freshwater scarcity.
  20. Hoekstra, A. Y. and Mekonnen, M. M. (2016). Imported water risk: the case of the UK. Environmantal Research Letters, 11(5): 055002.
  21. Hoekstra, A.Y. (2009). Human appropriation of natural capital: A comparison of ecological footprint and water footprint analysis. Ecological Economics, 68(7): 1963-1974.
  22. Huang, J., Xu, C.C., Ridoutt, B.G., Liu, J.J., Zhang, H.L., Chen, F. and Li, Y. (2014). Water availability footprint of milk and milk products from large-scale dairy production systems in Northeast China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 79: 91-97.
  23. Lovarelli, D., Bacenetti, J. and Fiala, M. (2016). Water Footprint of crop productions: A review. Science of the Total Environment, 548: 236-251.
  24. MAJ, (2019). Retrieved from: http://www.maj.ir/Portal/Home/ aspx? CategoryID¼c5c8bb7b-ad9f-43dd-8502-cbb9e37fa2ce. (Persian)
  25. Manazza, J. F. and Iglesias, D. H. (2012). Water Footprint in Milk Chains in the Central Subhumid and Semiarid Region of Argentina.
  26. Mekonnen, M.M. and Gerbens-Leenes, W. (2020). The water footprint of global food production. Water, 12(10): 2696.
  27. Mekonnen, M.M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2010). The green, blue and grey water footprint of farm animals and animal products. Volume 2: Appendices.
  28. Mekonnen, M.M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2012). A global assessment of the water footprint of farm animal products. Ecosystems, 15(3): 401-415.
  29. Miglietta, P.P., Giove, S. and Toma, P. (2018). An optimization framework for supporting decision making in biodiesel feedstock imports: Water footprint vs. import costs. Ecological Indicators, 85: 1231-1238.
  30. Murphy, E., Upton, J., Humphries, J., French, P., Holden, N. and Curran, T. (2013). Water footprint methodologies of Irish milk production. Biosystems Research Review, 18: 115-119.
  31. Nouri, H., Stokvis, B., Galindo, A., Blatchford, M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2019). Water scarcity alleviation through water footprint reduction in agriculture: the effect of soil mulching and drip irrigation. Science of Total Environment, 653: 241-252.
  32. Owusu-Sekyere, E., Jordaan, H. and Chouchane, H. (2017). Evaluation of water footprint and economic water productivities of dairy products of South Africa. Ecological Indicators, 83: 32-40.
  33. Pendharkar, P.C. (2021). Hybrid radial basis function DEA and its applications to regression, segmentation and cluster analysis problems. Machine Learning with Applications, 6: 100092.
  34. Ridoutt, B.G., Page, G., Opie, K., Huang, J. and Bellotti, W. (2014). Carbon, water and land use footprints of beef cattle production systems in southern Australia. Journal of Cleaner Production, 73, 24-30.
  35. Ridoutt, B. G. and Pfister, S. (2010). Reducing humanity’s water footprint. In: ACS Publications.
  36. Scherer, L. and Pfister, S. (2016). Global biodiversity loss by freshwater consumption and eutrophication from Swiss food consumption. Environmental Science and Technology, 50(13): 7019-7028.
  37. SCI (2015). Retrieved from: Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). Database of publications. Available at http://amar.sci.org.ir.
  38. Steen-Olsen, K., Weinzettel, J., Cranston, G., Ercin, A.E. and Hertwich, E.G. (2012). Carbon, land, and water footprint accounts for the European Union: consumption, production, and displacements through international trade. Environmental Science and Technology, 46(20): 10883-10891.
  39. Steuer, R.E. and Harris, F.W. (1980). Intra-set point generation and filtering in decision and criterion space. Computers and Operations Research, 7(1-2), 41-53.
  40. Tahamipour Zarandi, M., Dashtban Farooji, S. and Jawaherdehi, S. (2017). Evaluating the trade of Iranian industrial products with different countries from the perspective of virtual water. Economics and Modeling. Economics and Modeling, 8 (30), 143-187. (Persian)
  41. UN Data. (2020). Retrieved from: https:// data.un.org/ Data.aspx?q=population+growthandd =SOWCandf=inID%3a78.
  42. UNDP, (2019). Human Development Report. (United Nations. New York, NY 10017 USA.
  43. UNFCCC, (2015). UNFCCC Country Brief 2014: Iran (Islamic Republic of). http://newsroom.unfccc.int/ unfccc-newsroom/iran-submits-its-climate-action-plan-ahead-of-2015-parisagreement/.
  44. Van Oel, P., Mekonnen, M. and Hoekstra, A.Y. (2009). The external water footprint of the Netherlands: Geographically-explicit quantification and impact assessment. Ecological Economics, 69(1): 82-92.
  45. Wichelns, D. (2017). Volumetric water footprints, applied in a global context, do not provide insight regarding water scarcity or water quality degradation. Cological Indicators, 74: 420-426.
  46. World Bank. (2004). Islamic Republic of Iran energy-environment Review Policy Note. Report No. 29062-IR. Washington D.C.
  47. Zimmer, D. and Renault, D. (2003). Virtual water in food production and global trade: review of methodological issues and preliminary results. Virtual water trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade. Value of Water Research Report Series (No. 12).
  48. Zonderland-Thomassen, M.A., Lieffering, M. and Ledgard, S.F. (2014). Water footprint of beef cattle and sheep produced in New Zealand: water scarcity and eutrophication impacts. Journal of Cleaner Production, 73: 253-262.