بررسی نقش تحریم‌های اقتصادی در تراز تجاری دوجانبة بخش کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

2 نویسندة مسئول و استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

4 دانش ‏آموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

5 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی، از یک سو، بیانگر توان ارزآوری این بخش و از سوی دیگر، نشان‌دهنده میزان وابستگی به تأمین امنیت غذایی کشور از واردات است و از این‌رو، بررسی مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر آن می‌تواند موجب انتخاب سیاست‌گذاری‌های کارآمدتر در آینده شود. با توجه به تحریم‌های اقتصادی علیه ایران، هدف پژوهش حاضر ارزیابی اثر تحریم ­های اقتصادی بین‌المللی بر تراز تجاری دوجانبه بخش کشاورزی ایران با 45 شریک تجاری اصلی در دوره زمانی 2017-2001 بود که بدین منظور، از الگوی جاذبه استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج به‏ دست‏ آمده، تحریم­ های بین­ المللی و تحریم ­های اتحادیه اروپا و آمریکا بر تراز تجاری کشاورزی ایران اثر منفی داشته، که این اثر برای تحریم‌های بین‌المللی بی­معنی و برای تحریم‌های اتحادیه اروپا و آمریکا معنی‌دار بوده است. بنابراین، پیشنهاد می‌شود که برای جلوگیری از کاهش شدید تراز تجاری در دوره‌های تحریمی احتمالی آینده، وابستگی ایران به اتحادیه اروپا به‏ عنوان مهم‏ترین شریک تجاری آمریکا کاهش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Role of Economic Sanctions on Bilateral Trade Balance of Iran's Agricultural Sector

نویسندگان [English]

  • Milad Aminizadeh 1
  • hamed Rafiee 2
  • Zeinab Rostamzade 3
  • Andisheh Riahi 4
  • Elham Mehrparvar Hosseini 5
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran (hamedrafiee@ut.ac.ir).
3 MSc. Student in Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 MSc. Graduate in Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
5 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The agricultural trade balance, on the one hand, shows the ability to earn foreign currency in this sector and, on the other hand, indicates the degree of dependence on food security from imports. Therefore, study of effective components can lead to more effective policy choices in the future. Regarding economic sanctions against Iran, this study aimed at assessing the impact of international economic sanctions on the bilateral trade balance of Iran's agricultural sector with 45 major trading partners during the period 2001-2017. For this purpose, gravity model was used. The results indicated that international and EU-US sanctions had a negative effect on Iran's agricultural trade balance with its trading partners; in addition, this impact was insignificant for international sanctions and was statistically significant for EU-US sanctions. Therefore, it is suggested that Iran's dependence on the EU as the US most important trading partner be reduced to prevent a sharp decline in trade in future probabilistic sanctions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bilateral Trade Balance
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Gravity Model
  • Iran
  • Agricultural Sector
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