عوامل مؤثر بر نرخ واقعی ارز در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 نویسنده مسئول و استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

نرخ واقعی ارز که تغییر و تحول قیمت‌ها و هزینه‌های نسبی را با یک پول مشترک اندازه می‌گیرد، مهم‌ترین معیار بررسی قدرت رقابت‌پذیری است. بر همین اساس، در مطالعة حاضر، با اتکا به شواهد موجود و مدل اقتصادسنجی، به بررسی عوامل تعیین‌کننده رفتار نرخ واقعی ارز در اقتصاد ایران پرداخته شد. در راستای هدف مطالعه، ابتدا محاسبة نرخ واقعی ارز و سپس، با بهره‌گیری از مدل تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM)، تحلیل تأثیر عوامل اقتصادی مهم بر آن طی دوره 1397- 1357 صورت گرفت. یافته‌ها حاکی از روند مستمر نزولی نرخ واقعی ارز طی حدود دو دهه اخیر (به ‏جز سال‌های 1391، 1396 و 1397) بود، که کاهش قدرت رقابت‌پذیری محصولات تولید داخل در مقایسه با کالاهای وارداتی را در پی داشته و این کاهش ناشی از تعدیل نرخ اسمی ارز نامتناسب با تفاضل تورم داخلی و خارجی است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان از تأثیر منفی متغیرهای درآمد صادرات نفتی و تراز تجاری غیرنفتی و تأثیر مثبت متغیر نسبت حجم پول به کسری بودجه در بلندمدت در نرخ واقعی ارز داشت. توصیه می‌شود که نرخ واقعی ارز محاسبه ‏شده و تحلیل الگوی رفتاری آن در مطالعة حاضر برای براورد نرخ تعادلی ارز به‏ منظور ارزیابی سیاست‌های اقتصادی مانند سیاست‌های کشاورزی به ‏کار برده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Factors Affecting the Real Exchange Rate in Iran's Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • fatemeh sakhi 1
  • Seyed Safdar Hosseini 2
  • habibollah salami 3
  • saeed yazdani 3
1 PhD student, Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author and Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Tehran. Iran
3 Professor, Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The real exchange rate, which measures the changes in relative prices and costs with a common currency, is the most important measure of competitiveness. Thus, in this study, relying on the available evidence and the econometric model, the determinants of the behavior of the real exchange rate in the Iranian economy were examined. For this purpose, firstly, the real exchange rate was calculated and then, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the impact of important economic factors on it was analyzed during the period of 1978-2018. The findings indicated the continuous downward trend of the real exchange rate during the last two decades (except for the years 2011, 2016 and 2017), which led to a decrease in the competitiveness of domestically produced products compared to imported goods, and this decrease was caused by the adjustment of the exchange rate. The nominal currency is disproportionate to the difference in domestic and foreign inflation. The study findings showed the negative effect of oil export income and non-oil trade balance variables and the positive effect of the money volume to budget deficit variable in the long term on the real exchange rate. It is recommended that the calculated real exchange rate and the analysis of its behavior pattern used in the present study to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate in order to evaluate economic policies such as agricultural policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Budget Deficit
  • Money Supply
  • Oil Export Revenue
  • Trade Balance
  • Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

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