تعیین مناسب‌ترین بازار هدف صادراتی کشمش ایران با استفاده از تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

کشمش یکی از محصولات کشاورزی ایران است که هرساله بخش قابل‌توجهی از صادرات این بخش را به خود اختصاص می­دهد. هدف اصلی مطالعة حاضر، تعیین مناسب‌ترین بازار هدف صادراتی  برای محصول کشمش است. در این راستا، یک ساختار سلسله مراتبی بر مبنای مطالعات گذشته،  با سه معیار و شش زیرمعیار برای چهارکشور هدفِ امارات، اوکراین، عراق و روسیه طراحی شد. نتایج نشان داد که معیار دسترسی به بازار با وزن جزئی 5/ 0 نسبت به دو معیار دیگر، یعنی هزینه و اندازه بازار، بیشترین اهمیت را دارد. افزون بر این،کشور عراق با وزن نهایی 27/ 0 در اولویت اول و کشور امارات، اوکراین و روسیه به ترتیب در اولویت‌های بعدی قرارگرفتند.
 
طبقه‌بندی JEl : Q11, Q13, Q17

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of the Most Appropriate Target Market for Export Raisin of Iran Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

نویسندگان [English]

  • mehdi mahmoudi 1
  • nafiseh roohi 1
  • M. Sabouhi Sabouni 2
1 M.Sc Student of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Raisin is one of the crops which has a considerable share of yearly export. The main purpose of current study was to determine the most appropriate target market for the export of Iranian Raisin. In this regard, based on previous studies, a hierarchical structure designed with three criteria and, six sub-criteria for four target countries, UAE, Ukraine, Iraq and, Russia. The results showed that the market access criterion with a low weight of 0.5% is the most important in comparison to the cost and market size. In addition, Iraq with the final weight of 0.27 is in the first priority and the UAE, Ukraine and Russia were placed in the next priority respectively. 
 
JEL Classification: Q11, Q13, Q17

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural Export
  • Fuzzy logic
  • Target Country
  • Raisin

1. Αnagnostopoulos, Κ., Petalas, C. and Pisinaras, V. )2005(. Water resources planning using the ahp and promethee multicriteria methods: The case of nestos river-Greece.

2. Ardakani, H. )2014(. Investigating structure of the world market selected Iranian export products and prioritizing target markets. Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences Mashhad. (Persian)

3. Ashrafi, M. and Karbasi, A. )2005(. Comparative advantage of production and Iranian raisin export. Agricultural Economics and Development, 58: 39-59. (Persian)

4. Arunraj, N.S. and Maiti, J. )2010(. Risk-based maintenance policy selection using AHP and goalprogramming. Safety Science, 48: 238–247.

5. Bozbura, F. T. and Beskese, A. )2007(. Prioritization of organizational capital measurement indicators using fuzzy AHP. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. 44(2): 124-147.

6. Chang, D.Y. )1996(. Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP. European journal of operational research,95(3): 649-655.

7. Changjun, Y. and Ping, H. )2002(. Does comparative advantage explains export patterns in China?. China Economic Review, No 13: 276–296.

8. Chizari, A., Riahi , R. and Aminizadeh, M. )2015(. Prioritization of target markets of major global exporter’s raisins (approach to identify of competition potential in these markets). Agricultural Economics, 8(4): 59-88. (Persian)

9. Ertugrul, I. and Karakasoglu, N. )2009(. Performance evaluation of Turkish cement firms with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and TOPSIS methods. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(1): 702-715.

10. Gopal, N., Jeyanthi, P., Geethalakshmi, V. and Unnithan, G.R.(2009). Indian finfish exports – an analysis of export performance and revealed comparative advantage. Agricultural Economics Research Review. Vol. 22: 291-297.

11. Huang, H. and Miller., G. Y. (2003). Evaluation of swine odor management strategies in a fuzzy multi-criteria decision environment. Urbana, 51: 61802.

12. Hosseini, M. and Hooman, T. (2007). The world market study and Iran's export dates target markets. Agricultural Economics and Development, 57(15): 1-29. (Persian)

13. Ishchukova. N. and Smutka. L. (2013). Revealed comparative advantage of Russian agricultural exports. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, (4): 941-952.

14. Islamic Republic of Iran's Customs. (2015). Statistics and information. (Persian)

15. Jedele, S., Angela, M. H. and Matthias, V. O. (2003). An analysis of the world market for mangos and its importance for developing countries. Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development.

16. Khorsandifar, S. and Farahmand, F. (2013). Use of multiple criteria decision making to study and determine the most attractive target market for exporting agricultural products (case study of walnut products). Quarterly Manager, 9(56): 28-39. (Persian)

17. Lee, A. H., Wen, C.C. and Ching, J. C. (2008). A fuzzy AHP and BSC approach for evaluating performance of IT department in the manufacturing industry in Taiwan. Expert Systems with Applications, 34(1): 96-107.

18. Mehrabi Bashrabadi, H. and Neshati, A. (2010). Investigating the factors affecting of export vomparative advantage and prioritizing pistachio target markets in Iran. The Journal of Commercial Research, (55): 213-233. (Persian)

19. Mei, X., Rosso, R., Huang, G. L. and Nie, G. S. (1989). Application of analytical hierarchy process to water resources policy and management in Beijing, China. International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). 180.

20.Nader, H., Sabouhi, M. and Mahammadpour, A. (2014). Water allocation of Mahabad multipurpose dam using integrated fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and goal programming models. Journal of Water and Soil Science,24(3): 215-229. (Persian)

21.Nader, H., Kaikhah, A. E. and Sabouhi, M. (2013). Designing the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine water allocation priority for Mahabad dam. Journal of Water and Soil Science, 22(4): 147-159. (Persian)

22.Ozdagoglu, A. (2008). Analysis of selection criteria for manufacturing employees using Fuzzy-AHP. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi. 9(1).

23.Pakravan, M. and Kavoosi, K. M. (2011). Future prospects of Iran, U.S and Turkey's pistachio exports. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 1(3): 181-188.

24.Permeh, Z., Hosseini, M. Nabizadeh, A. and Mohebi, H. (2009). Iran's export potential and saffron target market. Quarterly Journal of the Research Institute of Trade, 51: 59-95. (Persian)

25.Piri , M., Mohammad Rezaei, R. and Karbasi, A. (2010). Study of market structure and target markets analysis of Iran's apricot. Commercial Review, 40(8): 40-52. (Persian)

26.Rohi, N., Mahmoudi, M. and Sabouhi, M. (2016). Prioritization in medicinal plants target markets with FAHP approach. National of Industrial Economics of Iran. Tabriz University. (Persian)

27.Salami, H. and Pishbahar, A. (2001). Changes in comparative advantage in Iran's agricultural: an applied analysis by using relative comparative advantage indicators. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, (34): 67-99. (Persian)

28.Shangai, R., Amini Zadeh, M., Riahi, A. and Talebian Kermani, T. (2014). Study of export market structure of target markets in Iran's raisins. The 9th Iranian Agricultural Economy Conference. 2014, Tehran. (Persian)

29.Tolga, E., Demircan, M. L. and Kahraman, C. (2005). Operating system selection using fuzzy replacement analysis and analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Production Economics. 97(1): 89-117.

30.Tunc, F.B. and Ahmet, B. (2007). Prioritization of organizational capital measurement indicators using fuzzy AHP. Approximate Reasoning, 44: 124–147.

31.Utkulu, U. and Seymen, D. (2004). Revealed comparative advantage and competitiveness: evidence for turkey vis-à-vis the eu/15. European Trade Study Croup 6th Annual Conference, ETSG  Nottingham, September.

32.Valad Beigi, H. (2006). Prioritization in export target markets and barriers to their existence; case study: food products exports. Journal of Commercial Research, (41): 53-89. (Persian)